INDONESIA: Country Wrap:  Lawmakers Fastracking Expanded Role for Military. 

• In what seems to be a rare occurrence these days, the China 10YR future rose +0.08 today to be at 108.91.
• The 10YR future has been oscillating within the midpoint of the 20-day EMA of 109.11 and the 50-day EMA of 108.63.
• China’ s 2YR future rallied also by 0.04 but too remains within the midpoint of the 20-day EMA of 102.71 and the 50-day EMA of 102.73.
• Key data out for China this week is the MLF Rate where no change is expected, new and used home prices ending the week with the 1 and 5-year Loan prime rate where again no change is expected. 

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0514 High Feb 14
• PRICE: 1.0487 @ 05:44 GMT Feb 17
• SUP 1: 1.0393 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0280/0141 Low Feb 10 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing

EURUSD is holding on to its recent gains. A short-term bull theme remains intact and last week’s gains have reinforced current conditions. The move higher also strengthens a short-term reversal signal on Feb 3 - a hammer - and suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0430. This has exposed 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.

• RES 4: 134.94 High Dec 17            
• RES 3: 134.54 61.8% retracement of the Dec 2 - Jan 14 bear leg
• RES 2: 134.29 High Dec 20
• RES 1: 132.99/133.71 50-day EMA / High Feb 5                 
• PRICE: 132.36 @ 05:25 GMT Feb 17 
• SUP 1: 132.05/62 Trendine drawn from the Jan 15 low / Low Jan 31      
• SUP 2: 131.59 61.8% retracement of the Jan 14 - Feb 5 bull leg              
• SUP 3: 131.00 Low Jan 24 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 130.28 Low Jan 15 and the bear trigger    

The recent pullback in Bund futures resulted in a move through the 20-day EMA - currently at 132.63. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and attention is on 132.05, a trendline drawn from the Jan 15 low. Clearance of the line would expose a key support at 131.00, the Jan 16 / 24 low. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 133.71, Feb 5 high.