CHILE: USDCLP Moderately Lower as BCCh Minutes Lean Hawkish
Feb-12 11:43
- USDCLP is opening with a moderate gap lower amid a hawkish lean to the BCCH minutes. In the January statement, the central bank board say they would “evaluate the next movements of the TPM taking into account the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario and its implications for inflationary convergence”.
- The minutes provide more details, indicating that one member added “that it should be made clear that the Bank would act with appropriate severity, which implied being willing to change the direction of monetary policy and move rates upwards, if necessary.”
- A caveat has been provided that this was not the most likely scenario, highlighting “that the next IPoM would provide new background information that would allow for a better assessment of this matter.”
- As noted, the recent move lower in USDCLP reinforces current bearish conditions and signals scope for an extension towards 940.35, the 61.8% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Retracement In The EUROSTOXX50 Contract Extends
Jan-13 11:35
- In the equity space, a bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the contract is trading lower today. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been cleared. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5996.50, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and for now, the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support to watch is 4935.71, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 4829.00, the Dec 20 low and key short-term support. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. A clear break of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, the 0.764 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Mid Curve Upside structures
Jan-13 11:27
- 0RG5 97.875/98.00/98.12c fly, bought for 1.75 in 4k.
- 0RG5 98.00/98.125/98.25c ladder, bought for 1 in 6k.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Bearish Start To The Week
Jan-13 11:27
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-26/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-09 @ 11:08 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 107-06 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
