CHILE: USDCLP Trend Needle Points South, Finance Minister Marcel Speaking
Mar-13 12:20
- USDCLP is trading moderately higher in early trade Thursday, with the pair up 0.4% at 941, as copper prices have edged lower following sharp gains earlier this week. USDCLP remains in a bear-mode condition, with sights on 921.59, the 76.4% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3. Initial resistance is at 945.46, the 20-day EMA, with firm resistance at 959.18, the 50-day EMA. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Mario Marcel is speaking now at an event organised by BTG Pactual, noting that February economic activity is likely to be hit by temporary factors, but that local investments will recover this year.
- No macro data are due today, with Q4 GDP and current account, and the latest BCCh traders survey next in the calendar on March 18. This week’s equivalent BCCh economist survey confirmed expectations for an extended interest rate pause, with analysts still seeing the policy rate at 5.00% in five months and only expecting one 25bp cut to 4.75% by year-end. The next BCCh MPC meeting is scheduled for March 21.
- In other news, leading centre-right presidential candidate Evelyn Matthei has called for a conversation about restoring the death penalty in Chile, amid the security crisis affecting the country. Matthei continues to lead in the polls ahead of the November 16 election, polling 25% in one recent survey by Panel Ciudadano UDD and 18% in another by Cadem.
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MNI: FINAL REMINDER: MNI Webcast with ECB Frank Elderson On Feb 12
Feb-11 12:19
You are invited to listen to an MNI Webcast with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.
Details below:
- TOPIC OF DISCUSSION: 'Climate Change: Impact on Monetary Policy & Bank Supervision'
- DATE: Wednesday 12 February
- TIME: 10 am to 11:15 am London time / 11 am to 12:15 pm Frankfurt time
- This event is on the record and will run as a Zoom Webinar
To register please go to: MNI Webcast Registration
JPY: Higher Core Yields Continuing to Weigh on Japanese Yen
Feb-11 12:12
- Pressure on core fixed income and the associated higher yields on Tuesday are supporting the latest recovery for Cross/JPY, as USDJPY rises to a fresh session high of 152.38. Price action narrows the gap to Monday’s peak, which comes in at 152.54.
- Plenty of room for USDJPY to correct further to the topside, given the powerful move lower last week and additional profit taking dynamics potentially in play ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI release. Above Monday’s high, 152.89 (Jan 6 high) and 153.72 (Jan 27 low) are levels to watch.
- In similar vein, EURJPY is trading on the front foot following last week’s near 3% plunge. We have noted that the short-term trend is oversold, and today’s gains are allowing this condition to unwind.Initial resistances are located at 157.97 (Feb 3 low) and 158.86 (Feb 6 high), however firm resistance is not seen until the 20-day EMA and the significant pivot level of 160.00.
NATO: Anti-Gov't Strikes Could Impact NATO Defence Ministers' Meeting
Feb-11 12:07
Belgium's three major trade unions will hold nationwide strikes on 12 and 13 February in protest of the new 'Arizona' coalition's governing agreement. The strikes, which are set to affect public transport, postal services, refuse collection, and eductation are also set to result in no flights being able to depart Belgium's two busiest airports on 13 Feb. This strike could have knock-on effects for talks regarding European security.
- Previous strikes in Jan came on the back of leaked information speculating on cuts to welfare and pension reforms from the five-party 'Arizona' coalition that was in the final stages of agreeing on a plan for gov't. Having now come to power and outlined its plans, Günther Blauwens, president of the Flemish railway union ACOD Spoor, told Brussels Times that "There is even more anger now; many feel cheated."
- Defence ministers from Ukraine's allies meet in the Ukraine Defense Contact Group format (also known as the Ramstein format) tomorrow (12 Feb) at NATO's HQ in Brussels. The talks are the first in the format since US President Donald Trump took office, and for the first time will not be chaired by the US but instead by the UK. After this on Thursday 13 Feb, a NATO defence ministers' meeting takes place. A significant number of these defence ministers are planning to attend the 14-16 Feb Munich Security Conference in Bavaria. It remains to be seen whether ministers will commit to attending in person if they risk missing events later in the week.
