IDR: USD/IDR Firmer Ahead Of BI Decision, No Change Forecast But Close Call

In local morning trade, NZGBs closed flat to 2bps cheaper, with a flatter curve, on a subdued day of trading with cash US tsys out for Martin L. King Day. US Tsy futures (TYH5) is trading at 108-15, -0-02+ from closing levels.

• Swap rates finished unchanged.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing close flat to 4bps firmer. 46bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 106bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Performance Services Index and Card Spending data. The PSI rose to 49.5 in November, the highest since February.
• However, the focus of the week will be Wednesday’s Q4 CPI data which is forecast to show moderation in headline and non-tradeables inflation.
• Headline returned to the RBNZ’s 1-3% band in Q3 and is expected to ease 0.1pp to 2.1% y/y posting a 0.5% q/q rise in Q4. The RBNZ forecasted 0.4% q/q & 2.1% y/y in November. Non-tradeables are projected to rise 0.8% q/q which would result in the annual rate moderating to around 4.7% y/y from 4.9%.
• November net migration prints on Thursday. Initial readings have tended to be revised down over H2 2024 as immigration slows. The softening labour market has discouraged people moving to NZ and encouraged New Zealanders to shift to Australia.

China and Hong Kong equities are rallying, buoyed by optimism over improved US-China relations following a positive pre-inauguration call between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. The CSI 300 Index rose as much as 1.2%, led by gains in tech stocks like Shengyi Technology (+8.9%) and Eoptolink Tech (+7.4%). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index is 2.3% higher, while the Hang Seng Tech Index jumped 3.25%, with e-commerce giants JD.com (+5.8%) and Alibaba (+3%) driving the rally.

• The market also reacted to China leaving its loan prime rates unchanged, with the one-year rate at 3.1% and the five-year rate at 3.6%. Education shares advanced after government guidance promoting AI and stricter curriculum controls, with New Oriental Education & Technology rising 6%. Additionally, reports of re-lending facilities supporting A-share buybacks have boosted sentiment, benefiting privately-run firms.
• Traders aggressively bought call options on Chinese stock-linked ETFs like FXI and KWEB on Friday, driven by optimism over a positive Trump-Xi call signaling potential easing in trade tensions. This activity pushed one-month implied volatility on FXI to its highest since mid-December, with bullish bets also driving significant gains in both ETFs.
• Overall, the markets are balancing optimism with caution over potential trade tariffs under Trump's incoming administration.

China’s property market has shown recent signs of stabilisation, with home prices in first-tier cities trending upwards for three consecutive months and transaction volume remaining at a high level, Securities Daily reported, citing Zhang Bo, director at 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute. Prices of new homes in tier-one cities rose by 0.2% m/m in December, compared to November’s 0.0%. Existing housing was 0.0%, up from the previous 0.1% decline. Major cities' real-estate markets are expected to boom after the Chinese New Year if authorities keep offering policy support, the newspaper said, citing Zhang.