AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude Oil dropped as Trump and Putin agreed to Ukraine talks
February 12 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude Oil dropped as Trump and Putin agreed to talks over the Ukraine war. After President Trump posted on Truth Social about his call with Putin, he also confirmed a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Oil had already been on the decline after the EIA reported rising US crude inventories.
• US President Donald Trump has confirmed on the Truth Social platform his call this morning with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Trump: "We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now."
• US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data and remains below the five-year seasonal average. API data yesterday showed a large crude stock build of 9mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks fell 3.035mbbl while distillate stocks rose 135 kbbl.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a "return to intense fighting" if Hamas does not return Israeli hostages by Saturday.
• Global crude stocks have fallen to the lowest level since at least January 2017 at 3,240mbbls in early February, according to Kpler.
• North Dakota’s oil and gas production improved slightly from recent losses due to cold weather. In an email to MNI from the ND Pipeline Authority, oil production was estimated to be down 40-70 mbo/d while associated wellhead Nat gas production is estimated to be down 0.11-0.20 bcf/d.
• Chevron’s 369 kb/d Pasadena refinery had an emissions event in a light oil unit.
• OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report kept the global oil demand forecast unchanged at 1.45 mb/d. Global oil supply from countries outside the DoC is seen rising 1.0 mb/d in 2025 driven by US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. Within the DoC, output was down 118 kb/d in January to 40.62 mb/d per secondary sources.
• The NOAA 6–14-day outlook remains supportive for heating demand with below-normal conditions forecast across most of the key Northeast and Midwest consuming regions while milder conditions are only expected in parts of the West. Elevated heating demand is likely in much of PADDs 1-3 with decreased demand in most of PADDs 4-5.
- US cracks were lower with diesel falling amidst an unexpected build in distillates and a large drop in implied demand. Gasoline cracks were under pressure as stocks rose in the key PADD 1.
- WTI Mar futures were down 2.7% at $71.37
- WTI Apr futures were down 2.5% at $71.23
- RBOB Mar futures were down 2.8% at $2.09
- ULSD Mar futures were down 2.5% at $2.45
- US gasoline crack down 0.8$/bbl at 16.27$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.8$/bbl at 31.55$/bbl
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-26/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-10+ @ 19:25 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 107-06 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: $13.85B to Price Monday
$13.85B to price Monday, $3B KFW, $2B CADES and others rolled to Tuesday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.75B #Rabobank $700M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+60, $750M 8NC7 +100
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1.2B #Eastern Energy Gas $700M 10Y +105, $500M 30Y +125
- 01/13 $1B #Micron 10Y +102
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $650M Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +185
- 01/13 $500M #Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +185
- 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
- 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
- May price Tuesday:
- 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
- 01/14 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/14 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/14 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
- 01/14 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a
US: Biden's Final Foreign Policy Speech Underway Shortly
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver the final foreign policy address of his presidency. A livestream of the speech, taking place at the State Department, is available here.
- The speech kicks off Biden's farewell week to US politics: On Tuesday, he’ll deliver White House remarks on conservation; on Wednesday he will deliver his final Oval Office address; on Thursday, he will attend a final event at the Department of Defence; and on Friday, he will address the US Council of Mayors.
- A senior administration official told reporters: “[Biden] will describe how we reclaimed America’s global leadership as a force of stability, put our adversaries in a position of weakness, effectively navigated turbulence around the world and made America stronger at every step… He will discuss how we have dealt with the challenges and threats America faces and ensured that America — not our adversaries — are in the driver’s seat, best positioned to shape our future, and how he will hand the next administration a stronger hand than he inherited.”
- Biden is unlikely to speak in detail on the withdrawal from Afghanistan or the situation in Gaza – two foreign policy issues that undermined his bid for a second presidential term.
- A second Biden administration official told reporters, on Biden’s Oval Office speech: “It’ll be … really very rooted in the moment we’re in and where we go from here. It’ll be his last big chance to communicate with the country.”
