February 12 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude Oil dropped as Trump and Putin agreed to talks over the Ukraine war. After President Trump posted on Truth Social about his call with Putin, he also confirmed a call with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Oil had already been on the decline after the EIA reported rising US crude inventories.
• US President Donald Trump has confirmed on the Truth Social platform his call this morning with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Trump: "We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now."
• US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data and remains below the five-year seasonal average. API data yesterday showed a large crude stock build of 9mbbl, according to Bloomberg. Gasoline stocks fell 3.035mbbl while distillate stocks rose 135 kbbl.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a "return to intense fighting" if Hamas does not return Israeli hostages by Saturday.
• Global crude stocks have fallen to the lowest level since at least January 2017 at 3,240mbbls in early February, according to Kpler.
• North Dakota’s oil and gas production improved slightly from recent losses due to cold weather. In an email to MNI from the ND Pipeline Authority, oil production was estimated to be down 40-70 mbo/d while associated wellhead Nat gas production is estimated to be down 0.11-0.20 bcf/d.
• Chevron’s 369 kb/d Pasadena refinery had an emissions event in a light oil unit.
• OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report kept the global oil demand forecast unchanged at 1.45 mb/d. Global oil supply from countries outside the DoC is seen rising 1.0 mb/d in 2025 driven by US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. Within the DoC, output was down 118 kb/d in January to 40.62 mb/d per secondary sources.
• The NOAA 6–14-day outlook remains supportive for heating demand with below-normal conditions forecast across most of the key Northeast and Midwest consuming regions while milder conditions are only expected in parts of the West. Elevated heating demand is likely in much of PADDs 1-3 with decreased demand in most of PADDs 4-5.
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The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
$13.85B to price Monday, $3B KFW, $2B CADES and others rolled to Tuesday
US President Joe Biden is shortly due to deliver the final foreign policy address of his presidency. A livestream of the speech, taking place at the State Department, is available here.