AMERICAS OIL: Hedge Funds Cut Net Bullish Nymex Diesel Bets to 6-Week Low: BBG

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3 
• RES 1: 154.51/62 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / Intraday high       
• PRICE: 154.47 @ 15:10 GMT Feb 12
• SUP 1: 152.38/150.93 Intraday low / Low Feb 07
• SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9 
• SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24     

USDJPY traded stronger Wednesday, extending the recovery from the Feb 7 lows. The move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach at the close would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and bear trigger is 150.93, the Feb 7 low.

RRP usage falls to the lowest level since mid-April 2021 this afternoon: $67.670B vs. $76.446B on Tuesday. The number of counterparties falls to 27 from 36 prior.

Bundesbank President Nagel said Wednesday the Bundesbank is set to publish a debt brake proposal after the German parliamentary elections on February 23, Bloomberg reports. All mainstream parties except the pro-business FDP have signaled at least some readiness for reforms following the vote. 

• A qualified majority would be needed for Bundestag passage.
• While any actual adjustments will come down to the political process, the Bundesbank might try to provide some input for the ongoing debate on the topic, and indeed, it already had published a debt brake review proposal in April 2022 - some key excerpts from that below:
  • A proposed change on the cyclical adjustment of the net issuance allowance would allow "more time to adjust in the event of revisions to expected economic developments and tax revenue forecast errors. This would make it easier to stabilise budgetary policy and avoid procyclical stimuli."
  • Some additional adjustments would make sure that "in contrast to the increasingly flexible manner in which the debt brake is being used [it was suspended four consecutive years 2020-23], such reforms could reinforce its binding effect. Specifically, budgetary developments could be stabilised by recording interest expenditure on an accruals basis. In addition, credit balances on the control account resulting from not borrowing up to the borrowing limit could be netted against emergency loans."