ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (Z5) Trend Cycle Remains Bearish

Mar-14 13:40

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* RES 4: 85.00 - Round number resistance * RES 3: 84.50 - High Jan 30 and the bull trigger * RES 2: ...

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US TSY OPTIONS: Large March'25 10Y Put Sale - Unwind

Feb-12 13:39
  • -30,000 TYH5 109 puts from 43 to 45 post data, continued unwind of over 100k bought last couple weeks from 18-22. March options expire Feb 21.

US DATA: All Core CPI Categories Come In Higher Than Expected

Feb-12 13:37

The higher-than-expected M/M core / supercore CPI readings reflected stronger pressures in all major sub-categories in January. See table below.

  • Notably: Supercore (0.76% vs 0.20% prior) did not reflect the relatively tame OER and rents (0.31% and 0.35% respectively): instead it was well above expected hotels, airfares, and auto insurance in the services categories, with core goods jumping (used vehicles playing a role).
  • Also note that there were revisions across categories, as shown in the table below (housing categories in December were basically unaffected, as were the main aggregates; core goods were "actually" sequentially weaker in December than previously estimated).
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US TSY FUTURES: Post-CPI Data React

Feb-12 13:35
  • Treasury futures extended highs briefly before reversing course - trading lower across the board on higher than expected CPI inflation data.
  • The Mar'25 10Y tapped 109-05 high before reversing course to 108-10.5 low (-20), through initial technical support of 108-20.5 (Low Feb 4) and heading towards next support of 108-06 (Low Jan 23).
  • Tsy 10Y yield climbs to 4.6187% high, curves off flatter levels: 2s10s +.573 at 25.141.

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