NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls
Mar-14 18:21
Henry Hub is weaker today and is down around 7% on the week. Pressure comes from a mild start to spr...
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FOREX: EURJPY Soars Amid Higher Core Yields, Russia/Ukraine Optimism
Feb-12 18:20
- Wednesday’s session in FX has been characterised by a weaker yen, with EURJPY’s 1.85% rally particularly standing out. Price dynamics kickstarted across the APAC session but were then bolstered by a hotter-than-expected US CPI report, assisting the hawkish repricing across core fixed income markets.
- The single currency received an additional boost in late trade, as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict
- EURUSD had a brief flurry down to 1.0317 on the US CPI release, however, the pair has reversed back above 1.04 and is now testing the 50-day EMA, intersecting today a 1.0427. This marks a key resistance, and a clear break of it would be a bullish development.
- For EURJPY, session highs just below 161.00 display an intra-day range greater than 300 pips. The cross has extended the recovery from Monday’s lows to an impressive 3.5%. While we have noted that the move higher is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind, the significant reversal and fundamental developments places the short-term focus on an even stronger reversal. Key short-term resistance is at 161.09, the 50-day EMA.
- Overall, the USD index is 0.3% lower on the session as markets shrugged off the inflation readings and focused more on the recovering equities and ongoing developments surrounding the US administration. Alongside the Trump/Putin call, economic adviser Hassett stated that reciprocal tariffs are a ‘work in progress’, potentially hinting of room for negotiation and further fostering a more optimistic tone for risk. Indeed, AUDUSD and NZDUSD have bounced back well from near 1% losses on the session to trade back in positive territory ahead of the APAC crossover.
- NZ inflation expectations data is due overnight, before UK GDP and Swiss CPI headline the European data docket. In the US, PPI figures are scheduled.
GLOBAL: Trump Details Call With Ukraine's Zelenskyy, Meeting Set for Friday
Feb-12 18:14
- Latest from Trump on his call with Zelenskyy (via Truth social):
- "I just spoke to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine. The conversation went very well. He, like President Putin, wants to make PEACE. We discussed a variety of topics having to do with the War, but mostly, the meeting that is being set up on Friday in Munich, where Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the Delegation. I am hopeful that the results of that meeting will be positive."
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: March'25 30Y Ultra-Bond Sale
Feb-12 18:13
- -2,000 WNH5 118-07, post time bid at 1306:10ET, DV01 $373,000. The 30Y Ultra contract trades 118-08 last (-1-14).
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