Riksbank Meeting

Meeting Date:

March 26 - 27

Rate Decision:

Mar 27, 2024 - 08:30 am

Description

The Sveriges Riksbank, or Riksbank, has a monetary policy meeting where it will decide on monetary policy, including the policy rate. The Riksbank will publish the decision and a Monetary Policy Update at 9:30 AM on their website. At 11 AM on the same day, the Riksbank will hold a press conference on the decision, which will also be published on their website.

Preview Coverage

MNI RIKSBANK WATCH: First-Half Cut In Sight As Inflation Eases

The Riksbank is seen keeping policy on hold at 4.0% at its March meeting but shaking up its rate projections to show a late H1 cut.

Mar-26 09:11

RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Preview - March 2024: Rate Path Revision In Focus

RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Preview - March 2024: Rate Path Revision In Focus The Riksbank are unanimously expected to leave the policy rate on hold at 4.00% in March. * Main focus will be on whether the door to a H1 2024 rate cut is opened any wider than at the February decision and if such a move is reflected in the updated rate path projection within the March Monetary Policy Report. * The MNI Markets Team expects the updated rate path to indicate that rates will most likely be cut in Q2 2024, with risks skewed towards the June meeting. * While a May rate cut cannot be fully ruled out at this stage, we still feel the Riksbank would prefer waiting for the ECB to cut rates first (most likely in June) before easing policy in Sweden, to protect the volatile SEK from an unwanted short-term depreciation. * Of the 15 previews in which analysts stated an opinion for the first cut, 9 look for a first cut in June, while 6 expect an earlier cut in May. For our full preview including a summary of 19 analysts views, see the PDF link below:MNI Riksbank Preview - 2024-03.pdf: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60509/MNI%20Riksbank%20Preview%20-%202024 -03.pdf

Mar-25 15:54

Review Coverage

RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Review - March '24: Coin Toss Between May & June

RIKSBANK: MNI Riksbank Review - March '24: Coin Toss Between May & June The Riksbank indicated that a May rate cut is well on the cards at its March monetary policy meeting, with Governor Theden acknowledging that the revised rate path assigns a 50% probability of such a move in the press conference. * The MNI Markets Team had expected the revised policy path to tilt slightly in favour of a June cut, but the Riksbank's messaging suggests they have no problem easing policy before the ECB/Fed if they deem it warranted by the data. * In the press conference, Governor Theden noted that if all data (i.e. not just inflation) were in line with the March MPR projections, a cut in May would be the most likely scenario. * In this respect, the March inflation reading (released on April 12, and the sole inflation reading before the May meeting) may be the deciding factor in determining when the first cut takes place. * However, the SEK remains a risk to the outlook, and Theden confirmed that a weaker development of the exchange rate in the coming months would impact rate decisions in May and June. For our full review, including a summary of 13 sell-side reviews, see the PDF here:MNI Riksbank Review - 2024-03.pdf: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/60571/MNI%20Riksbank%20Review%20-%202024- 03.pdf

Mar-28 10:25

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