SWEDEN: Inflation To Accelerate In Nov, Shouldn’t Deter Riksbank Cuts Yet
Dec-04 14:16
Swedish flash November inflation is due at 0700GMT/0800CET tomorrow. Consensus looks for a four tenth increase in headline CPIF to 1.9% Y/Y. This would be a full percentage point above the Riksbank’s September MPR forecast. CPIF ex-energy inflation is also expected to tick up to 2.4% Y/Y (vs 2.1% prior, 2.0% Riksbank), with analysts expecting a smaller Black Friday effect on goods inflation compared to last year. A reminder that no details are provided in the flash release.
- This acceleration in inflation is not expected to deter the Riksbank from delivering its signalled cut at the December 19 meeting. However, further upside in underlying inflation in the coming months may increase the need for a more cautious approach to rate cuts heading into 2025.
- Much of the expected increase in headline inflation is due to higher electricity prices, which were not accounted for at the time of the September MPR. There remains uncertainty around the magnitude though, with analyst forecasts submitted to BBG ranging from 1.4% Y/Y to 2.6% Y/Y.
- Note that Riksbank Executive Board members have previously signalled a willingness to look through energy-driven volatility in headline inflation, focusing more on CPIF ex-energy developments.
- Black Friday seasonality adds another source of uncertainty, while the weaker SEK could drive further accelerations in food inflation (a trend which was highlighted in the November MPR minutes).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MNI POLITICAL RISK - Iowa Poll Spikes Democrat Enthusiasm
Nov-04 14:06
Executive summary:
- Time is running out to collect last-minute votes and drive turnout in swing states. Vice President Kamala Harris is on the trail today in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump is holding four rallies in three states.
- One day out from Election Day, the presidential race has undergone another ‘vibe shift’, largely on the back of a poll from Ann Selzer, one of the most respected pollsters in the country, giving Harris a three-percentage-point lead in Iowa.
- It hard to understate the buzz around the Iowa poll. Selzer has an unparalleled record of accurately calling elections during challenging cycles. Of course, consistently beating the market is statistically unlikely and the poll comes with a range of caveats including the possibilty of an Iowa-specific GOP backlash.
- Elsewhere, the polling outlook is muddier. The final slate of NYT/Siena College polls show a counterintuitive shift, with Trump showing increased strength in the Rust Belt and Harris gaining ground in the Sun Belt. As the race remains within margin on error, anything from a Trump swing-state sweep to a Harris swing-state sweep is on the table, contingent on only a slight polling miss.
- Analysts have escalated warnings of pollster herding, particularly in the Rust Belt, where the consistently tight polling results are improbable.
- The data-driven election forecast models continue to project a coin toss race. Four of the models tracked by MNI show a Trump edge, two show a Harris edge, and one shows a 50-50 race.
- Political prediction markets have undergone a swing back to Harris following the Selzer poll.
Please find the full article attached below: US Daily Brief
STIR: Effective Fed Funds Rate
Nov-04 14:03
FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
- Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.83% (+0.00), volume: $99B
- Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.83% (+0.00), volume: $257B
FRANCE T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 9/13/26/52-week BTFs
Nov-04 13:55
| Type | 9-week BTF | 13-week BTF | 26-week BTF | 52-week BTF |
| Maturity | Jan 8, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | May 7, 2025 | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Amount | E499mln | E3.796bln | E1.697bln | E1.9bln |
| Target | E0.1-0.5bln | E3.4-3.8bln | E1.3-1.7bln | E1.5-1.9bln |
| Previous | E475mln | E1.798bln | E1.798bln | |
| Avg yield | 3.079% | 3.085% | 2.892% | 2.647% |
| Previous | 3.039% | 2.778% | 2.531% | |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.69x | 2.38x | 2.85x | 2.09x |
| Previous | 6.54x | 2.6x | 3.55x | |
| Previous date | Oct 28, 2024 | Oct 28, 2024 | Oct 28, 2024 |
Related by topic
Europe
Sweden
