EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - USDTRY Bull Wave Extends
Feb-12 12:12
- USDZAR continues to trade above the Jan 24 low. Price action on Jan 27 highlighted a possible early reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. The pattern has also signalled the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - 24. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 19.2296, the Jan 13 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the medium-term uptrend. Support to watch is 18.3022, the Jan 24 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate the recent bear cycle and open 18.2343 and 17.992, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the upleg between Dec 12 - Jan 13.
- The path of least resistance in USDTRY is unchanged and remains up. Fresh cycle highs highlight a continuation of the trend. The 36.00 handle has been cleared, this opens 37.00. Support at the 20-day EMA, lies at 35.7694.
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SONIA: SONIA FIX - 13/01/25
Jan-13 12:03
SONIA FIX - ICE/Bloomberg.
- TISONI1M 4.6693 -0.0168
- TISONI3M 4.5883 -0.0002
- TISONI6M 4.5441 0.0099
- TISONI1Y 4.5044 0.0271
FOREX: Analyst FX Views Amid Strengthening USD Trend
Jan-13 12:03
- *Goldman Sachs expect the dollar to rally by about 5% over the coming year on the realization of new tariffs and continued US outperformance. Even with this upgrade, GS still see the risks tilted towards more dollar strength, and are extending the target on their long USDSEK trade recommendation to 11.60, in line with our new 3m forecast, (revised stop to 11.00).
*ING think the defensive currencies of JPY & CHF can outperform on the crosses, while commodity and emerging currencies should take the brunt of the higher US rate story. Indeed, AUDUSD is not far from 0.60, where we could start to hear speculation over impending RBA intervention. - *SocGen: There is, in sum, a lot of US exceptionalism, and a lot of monetary policy divergence, already ‘in the price’. That, however, won’t stop the market overshooting. The current Bloomberg survey consensus forecast is for EURUSD to be at 1.04 at mid-year, could easily become a consensus forecast that we will be below parity.
- *BofA: Potentially higher trade uncertainty and relative monetary policy keep BofA cautious on EUR in the near term. But they are also getting concerned Euro area bearishness per se is getting "stretched", and some positions could get squeezed. EURJPY lower remains their preferred bearish EUR expression, while also favouring EURCAD downside, partly on their quant signals.
- *JP Morgan Tech: A break below 1.02 in EURUSD turns JPM's attention to the next support that includes the 1.009 Nov 2022 pattern breakout and then the 0.9909 Sep 2022 78.6% retrace.
- *MUFG: Even if there was a second consecutive month of softer US inflation it is difficult to see it triggering a significant dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations at the current juncture and reversal of US dollar strength given inflationary fears related to Trump’s policy agenda.
- *Rabobank: Heightened expectations of a February BoE rate cut would likely put the GBPUSD 1.20 level in view. Rabo have brought forward their forecast of GBP1.20 to a 1-to-3-month view (from 6 months).
EQUITIES: Estoxx Put Spread
Jan-13 11:58
SX5E (16th May) 4400/4300ps, bought for 11.3 and 11.4 in 6k.
