OIL: Crude Edges Higher After Breaking Through Support Levels Yesterday

• The Dollar is in the Green across the board, Tariff and deadline headlines dominate in Global markets going into the European session.
• The Kiwi was and still is the worst performer today, but the NZDUSD is some way short of 0.5516, Yesterday's low.
• This is a big support area level, since 0.5512 is the 2022 low and the lowest printed level since March 2020.
• The most traded Global pair is recovering some of its earlier losses, EURUSD is slowly edging back above 1.0300, after it exchanged hands at its worst level since November 2020 Yesterday at 1.0141.
• While it tested a 1.0350 overnight, the initial resistance will be eyed at 1.0387 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: $2917.5 - 1.764 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing    
• RES 3: $2900.0 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $2867.5 - 1.50 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: $2845.2 - 1.382 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing   
• PRICE: $2811.1@ 07:23 GMT Feb 4 
• SUP 1: $2736.4/2692.6 - 20- and 50-day EMA values   
• SUP 2: $2656.9 - Low Jan 13 
• SUP 3: $2614.8 - Low Jan 6  
• SUP 4: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19 and a key support 

A bull cycle in Gold remains in play. Last week’s extension higher and Monday’s gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $2845.2 next, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2692.6, the 50-day EMA. The 20-day EMA is at $2736.4.

Societe Generale note that “while our economists do not expect the French government to collapse at this stage, more challenges lie ahead.”

• They go on to suggest that “although investors' risk aversion towards OATs has diminished, we believe it is prudent to be defensive and consider re-entering OAT shorts if the OAT-Bund spread decreases to 70bp.”
• Looking ahead, they believe that “additional supply pressure and the potential for credit rating downgrades in H225 should counterbalance still relatively strong domestic and offshore demand for OATs.”