OIL: Oil End of Day Summary: Crude Rises on New US Sanctions

• The timely Dallas Fed’s banking conditions survey, collected Feb 4-12, noted that “loan volume continued increasing at a rapid pace in February while loan demand accelerated further.”
• Whilst only a snapshot for one region, it's nevertheless of note with some disagreement on the FOMC as to the level of restrictiveness currently exerted by monetary policy.
• The current period loan demand balance of +30 is up from +11 in the late Dec survey for its highest since May 2022, whilst future loan demand only dipped 3pts to a still elevated +16.
• A net share continue to see tighter credit standards, but with a balance of -10.4 (after -12.5 in late Dec), it poked below the -10.5 in Oct for technically its least since Apr 2022.
• The press release notes that “Loan nonperformance rose across all loan types, while growth in general business activity slowed”. However, we note that the current period NPL ratio at +16 is within recent ranges, which included the Jan 2025 high of +25. What’s more, the balance expecting higher NPLs in the future at +14 was up from two particularly low reports at 4-5 but is stil far lower than the +50 balances seen in 2023. 

• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.050%(ALLOT 6.53%)
• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 31.76% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 1.68% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 52W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.56% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 52W AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.03

• RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 6   
• RES 3: 1.0594 Dec 9 ‘24
• RES 2: 1.0533 High Jan 27 and a reversal trigger
• RES 1: 1.0514 High Feb 14
• PRICE: 1.0467 @ 16:07 GMT Feb 18
• SUP 1: 1.0402 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0280/0141 Low Feb 10 / 3 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.0031 2.00 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing

A bull cycle in EURUSD remains intact and the pair is trading closer to its recent highs. Last week’s gains have reinforced current conditions and  strengthened a short-term reversal signal on Feb 3 - a hammer. This suggests scope for an extension near-term. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 1.0432, and sights are on 1.0533, the Jan 27 high. Initial firm support lies at 1.0280, the Feb 10 low.