POWER: German DA Settles at Highest Discount to France Since Early January
Feb-07 12:00
German and French day-ahead prices declined, with Germany seeing sharper gains due to significantly lower demand and higher wind load factors compared to France. This resulted in a much lower residual load in Germany compared to the latter. As a result, Germany settled at its largest discount to France since 6 January.
.
- The German day-ahead spot settled at €108.81/MWh from €121.18/MWh on the previous day.
- This compares to the German day-ahead spot at €135.45/MWh for 31 January delivery (last Saturday).
- The French day-ahead spot cleared at €123.32/MWh from €129.78/MWh on the previous day.
- This compares to the French day-ahead spot at €130.28/MWh for 31 January delivery.
- Germany was at a €14.51/MWh discount from a €8.60/MWh discount in the previous session.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to decline to 19.12GW on Saturday and to 10.66GW on Sunday during base-load hours, compared with 29.46GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind output in Germany will then be at 22.33GW, or 35% load factor on 10 February (Mon) – which may cap gains from rising demand.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decline to 53.44GW on Saturday and to 49.9GW on Sunday, down from 61.96GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast at 4.1C on Saturday and at 3.4C on Sunday, from 3.5C on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
- Power demand will then be at 60.93GW on 10 February.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast to edge down to 25.68GWh/h on Saturday before rising to 31.28GWh/h on Sunday, compared with 26.57GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
- Wind output in France is forecast to fall to 6.26GW on Saturday and to 2.19GW on Sunday during base load, down from 9.05GW on Friday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then be at a 17% load factor, or 4.13GW on 10 February – which could place prices at a premium to the latter.
- Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 63.78GW on Saturday and to 62.32GW on Sunday, compared with 68GW on Friday amid mean temperatures in Paris are forecast at 5.6C and 4.2C on Saturday and Sunday respectively, compared with 4.4C on Friday, according to Bloomberg.
- Deman will then be at 68.44GW on 10 February.
- Residual load in France is forecast to decline to 56.08GWh/h on Saturday before rising to 57.85GWh/h on Sunday, compared with 57.29GWh/h on Friday according to Reuters.
- Nuclear availability in France fell to 79% of capacity as of Friday morning, down from 81% on Thursday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -3.7% SA THRU JAN 03 WK
Jan-08 12:00
- MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -3.7% SA THRU JAN 03 WK
US TSYS: Gilts Pressure Weighs, Trump Tariff Deliberation Adds To Noise
Jan-08 11:58
Treasuries have sold off over the past hour as US desks join, lagging sharp downward pressure in Gilts after long end yields broke to fresh multi-decade high. CNN has more recently reported Trump is weighing an emergency declaration for new tariffs with TY futures mostly sideways since then.
- Today’s 30Y supply can also weigh, but with the recent large steepening offering strong outright concession (WI yield currently ~40bps above last month’s auction high yield).
- Cash yields are 1-2bp higher, bear steepening with 2s10s setting new recent highs of 40.6bps.
- 10Y yields have recently seen a session high of 4.7014%, with focus on 4.7351%, the 2024 high.
- 30Y yields at 4.936% earlier hit fresh highs since Oct/Nov 2023.
- TYH5 trades at 108-03 (-02+) whilst cumulative volumes of 370k are reasonable but not particularly elevated.
- The earlier low of 108-01+ matched yesterday’s fresh cycle low, and sees attention on the round 108-00 before 107-19+ (both Fibo projections). Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend.
- Data: Headlined by weekly jobless claims brought forward a day early plus ADP employment.
- Fedspeak: Waller (0800ET), FOMC minutes (1400ET) – see STIR bullet.
- Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 30Y re-open - 912810UE6 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction (1130ET)
PIPELINE: Corporate Debt Roundup: $6B World Bank 7Y Priced Earlier
Jan-08 11:56
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Cncl of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $Benchmark Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) 5Y SOFR+42
- $36.95B Priced Tuesday, record $96.5B since Monday
