GERMAN DATA: 2024 Yearly Comparison Underlines Ongoing Weakness in Production
German industrial production came in weaker than expected in December, at -2.4% M/M, vs consensus of...
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6068.25/6107.50 High Jan 6 / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 5957.75 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present despite the most recent move higher. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the Dec 20 - 26 correction. Attention is on 5866.00, Dec 20 low and a key S/T support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is 6107.50, Dec 26 high. A breach of this hurdle would highlight a bull reversal and open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
STIR: Just Over 100bp Of ECB Cuts Still Priced Through '25
Light dovish moves in EUR STIRs fade as the recovery from Tuesday/Asia lows in Bunds moderates, with the bulk of the late ‘24/early ’25 hawkish repricing holding.
- ECB-dated OIS flat on the day, showing ~102.5bp of cuts through year-end, with the next 25bp move almost fully discounted come the end of this month’s decision.
- Euribor futures -0.5 to +1.5. Only ERH5 has pierced its November low in recent sessions.
- Comments from ECB’s Villeroy are due this evening, with lower tier Eurozone data (confidence metrics and PPI) scheduled this morning.
- That will leave much of the focus on the long end and U.S. data (ADP employment and weekly jobless claims).
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.674 | -24.4 |
Mar-25 | 2.405 | -51.3 |
Apr-25 | 2.221 | -69.7 |
Jun-25 | 2.076 | -84.2 |
Jul-25 | 2.024 | -89.4 |
Sep-25 | 1.952 | -96.6 |
Oct-25 | 1.918 | -100.0 |
Dec-25 | 1.893 | -102.5 |
GOLD TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2665.3/2692.8 - High Jan 3 / High Dec 13
- PRICE: $2653.2 @ 07:24 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
A bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
