NATGAS: TTF Drifts Down from Peak
TTF has pulled back from a peak of $55.455/MWh yesterday as the market weighs the risk to gas storage from a drop in temperatures in NW Europe in the coming days against a recovery in Norwegian pipeline supplies and healthy LNG imports.
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to fall towards mid February but could be followed by a recovery back towards normal.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have risen to the highest since Jan. 21 at 335.8mcm/d as capacity returns from outages, according to Bloomberg.
- European net gas storage withdrawals are still above normal after rising on Feb. 3. Storage has fallen to 50.63% full on Feb. 5, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 58.6%.
- European LNG sendout remains strong with NW flows at 260mcm/d on Jan. 5 compared to the high this winter of 274.7mcm/d.
- Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are steady at 59.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 441k on Feb. 6.
- TTF MAR 25 down 1.1% at 53.88€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 down 1.3% at 53.16€/MWh
- TTF WIN 25 down 0.8% at 48.61€/MWh
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag
- RES 4: 1.4676 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4360 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 1.4326/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4163 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4326, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4163, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6388 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6269/0.6302 20-day EMA / High Jan 6
- PRICE: 0.6227 @ 08:00 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair has pulled back from Monday’s high. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6269, 20-day EMA. It has been pierced. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6388.
STIR: SFRZ6/U7 Lifted
SFRZ6/U7 paper paid 6.5 on ~6.3K, initially taken bid over with a further ~3.2K trading since. Market left 6.0/6.5 last.
