EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (13 Feb)
Feb-13 15:49
| MNI EM Credit Market Wrap - CEEMEA (13 Feb) |
U.S. Treasuries are showing 10Y @ 4.5%, -6bp, with 5s/10s @ 14.52. Emirates NBD announced USD benchmark PNC6 mandate, with roadshows scheduled for tomorrow. The pipeline remains robust with several issues expected to come to the market.
- In secondary, 10-year benchmark sovereigns were broadly flat except for the Ukraine. UKRAIN bonds continued their strong momentum across the curve with the 1.75% Jan 35 benchmark bonds tightening 16bp, following President Trump’s phone conversation with President Putin. Israel spreads also continued to widen fourth day in a row by 10-20bps, as the ceasefire remains finely balanced. In corporate news EMAAR reported a solid set of results, which were not surprising given Aldar results earlier in the week. EMAAR’s 3.7% 32 bonds were showing 0.25pt higher today in cash terms. Sibanye Still water announced a succession plan for the CEO with the 4.5% Nov29 bonds +0.5pts in cash terms. Isbank also reported FY24 results after the close yesterday which were neutral for spreads.
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FOREX: EURGBP Matches Touted Resistance at 0.8448, Bull Cycle in Play
Jan-14 15:41
- The tightening of German-UK spreads has underpinned EURGBP outperformance on Tuesday, with the cross still up around half a percent on the session. The latest pop higher prompted EURGBP to match the touted resistance level of 0.8448 in recent trade, the Oct 31 high and a key reversal trigger point.
- The cross has edged ~15 pips lower following the technical hold, which potentially boosts its significance ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data release, particularly given the underlying bull cycle that is now in play.
- As noted, a breach would signal scope for a move towards 0.8494, the August 26 high. Separately, the August highs reside at 0.8625, which could garner attention should UK fiscal concerns/uncertainty deteriorate further. Both the 20-day and 50-day EMA’s represent initial support for the cross, currently intersecting around 0.8325.
STIR: Morning SOFR Option Update: Better Put Volume
Jan-14 15:36
Better SOFR put structure buying since the open, fading this morning's post-PPI rally with underlying futures scaling off of this morning's knee-jerk rally. Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to retreat, current vs. late Friday levels* as follows: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 at -5.8bp (-4.9bp), May'25 -10.2bp (-9bp), Jun'25 -17.6bp (-16.5bp), Jul'25 at -20.4bp (-18.7bp).
- +3,000 SFRM5 95.81/95.93/96.18 2x3x1 call flys 3.0 ref 95.835
- +15,000 0QK5 94.75/95.00 put spds, 2.0 vs. 95.905/0.05%
- +10,000 SFRU5 95.50/95.75/96.00 put flys, 6.5
- +15,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62/95.87 put flys, 5.5-5.75 ref 95.895
- +5,000 SFRM5 95.87/96.31 call spds 8.0 ref 95.835
- +4,000 SFRG5 95.62/95.68/95.75 put flys 3.0 ref 95.74
- +5,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62/95.87 put flys 5.5 ref 95.875
SONIA: Latest Large SONIA Options
Jan-14 15:31
- SFIM5 95.75/96.00cs, bought for 6.75 in 24k.
- SFIM5 95.70/96.00cs, bought for 8.75 and 9 in 20.5k.
