CEE: Romania Keeps Key Rate Steady at 6.50% as Expected
Feb-14 13:05
Highlights from the policy statement:
- According to the updated forecast, the annual inflation rate will fluctuate markedly in 2025 H1 – amid the two-way base effects that will be manifest over this time horizon –, before declining in H2 on a higher path than in the prior projection, staying above the variation band of the target until end-2025.
- The NBR Board reiterates that, at the current juncture, the balanced macroeconomic policy mix and the implementation of structural reforms […] are of the essence in preserving a stable macroeconomic framework
- Significant uncertainties are further associated with the growth rates of energy and food prices, as well as with the future path of crude oil prices, while notable risks come from the expansion trend of trade protectionism, potentially impacting other commodity prices and the prices of some intermediate and final goods.
Governor Mugur Isarescu will explain the decision on Monday, when he’ll also present fresh inflation projections. See the full policy statement here.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Hegseth Clears Path For Trump's Cabinet Nominees
Jan-15 13:04
- President-elect Donald Trump’s Defense Secretary nominee, Pete Hegseth, encountered little Republican resistance during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday. The hearing, seen as a litmus test for Trump’s unconventional nominees, suggests that all of Trump’s Cabinet nominees are now favoured to pass confirmation.
- Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary nominee Chris Wright, and OMB Director nominee Russ Voight are among six Cabinet picks facing the Senate today.
- Rubio, a China hawk with broad bipartisan support, is expected to deliver a stern critique of China’s foreign and industrial policy in his statement to the Foreign Relations Committee.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) outlined an ambitious timeline for legislating the Republican party’s complex agenda over the coming months.
- President Biden will defend the achievements of his administration in his prime-time farewell address from the Oval Office.
- Senate Banking Committee Chair, Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), will outline his legislative priorities in an address to the Exchequer Club of Washington this afternoon.
- Treasury Secretary Janet will reflect on her tenure at the Treasury in remarks at the New York Association for Business Economics.
- Trump said he create a new agency known as the ‘External Revenue Service’ to collect tariff revenue from foreign sources.
- Biden plans to unveil more regulations restricting China's access to advanced chips.
- Chart of the Day: Trump will begin his presidency in a delicate position, with voters sceptical of his tariff plans.
Full article: US Daily Brief
EQUITIES: Estoxx rolling Put
Jan-15 12:47
SX5E (20th June) 4700p vs (19th Dec) 4400p, sold the Dec at 17.30 in 20k vs 1.44k at 5034.00.
GILTS: OI Data Points To Fresh Net Shorts Added Again On Tuesday
Jan-15 12:46
Yesterday’s OI data and price action in gilt futures extended on the early ’25 trend of gilt weakness and a move higher in open interest, indicating net short setting dominated from a positioning perspective.
- This has been the case in all but one session through early ’25 trade, with net long cover seen in the session that broke that theme.
- Today’s CPI-driven recovery looks set to end a run of 9 consecutive lower closes for gilt futures, with the recent increase in net shorts likely factoring into the rally.
- OI has risen by ~39K since December 31, with gilt futures falling by 316 ticks when comparing yesterday’s settlement to settlement levels at the end of last year.
