EM CEEMEA CREDIT: VAKBN: Approval to sell USD10bn bonds
Feb-28 07:54
Vakifbank (VAKBN: B1pos/NR/B+) Turkey's Vakifbank Gets Approval to Sell Up to $10b Debt * We expec...
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STIR: 25bp ECB Cuts Still Essentially Fully Priced Through January and March
Jan-29 07:51
ECB-dated OIS are up to 1.5bps more dovish versus yesterday’s close, with 91bps of cuts priced through year-end. 25bp cuts at the January (tomorrow) and March decisions remain essentially fully priced, while there are 74bps of cuts priced through June.
- Euribor futures are +0.5 to +2.5 ticks through the blues. Most action has been seen in European equities and EUR FX so far this morning – see our earlier posts for more colour.
- Eurozone money and credit data is due at 0900GMT/1000CET. This release will be viewed alongside the ECB’s Q4 Bank Lending Survey, which signalled a tightening of credit standards and a lower demand balance amongst firms than seen in Q3. Overall, the survey suggested ECB policy is still somewhat restrictive.
- Spanish Q4 flash GDP is due at 0800GMT, with Spain expected to remain the primary Eurozone growth outperformer in 2025.
- MNI’s ECB preview is here.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.6 |
| Mar-25 | 2.453 | -46.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.326 | -59.5 |
| Jun-25 | 2.179 | -74.2 |
| Jul-25 | 2.131 | -79.0 |
| Sep-25 | 2.058 | -86.3 |
| Oct-25 | 2.039 | -88.2 |
| Dec-25 | 2.008 | -91.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
STIR: Just Over 70bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25, Reeves Due
Jan-29 07:45
A bid in core global FI markets filters into GBP STIRs.
- No clear driver. Increased French political risk apparent, but OATs have been unreactive to the news.
- European earnings set the tone in early equity futures trade, as detailed earlier.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~71bp of cuts through ’25.
- SONIA futures flat to +3.0.
- Comments from UK Chancellor Reeves due from just after 10:00. We provided greater colour in an earlier bullet. It is unlikely to be a market moving speech based on the already-released excerpts.
- As a result, macro and cross-market cues will be eyed today, with the UK data calendar subdued through the end of the week.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.474 | -22.7 |
Mar-25 | 4.424 | -27.7 |
May-25 | 4.275 | -42.5 |
Jun-25 | 4.214 | -48.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.105 | -59.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.077 | -62.3 |
Nov-25 | 4.014 | -68.6 |
Dec-25 | 3.994 | -70.6 |
EUR: Some selling interest going through
Jan-29 07:45
- Some early selling going through in the EUR, while the EURUSD is still sticking to a fairly tight early range, the Currency tests broader lows, versus the CAD, CHF, GBP, CNH, JPY, the move looks to be more EUR led than the Dollar.
- Closest tech level is in the EURGBP, with support eyed at 0.8357 50-day EMA.
