EM CEEMEA CREDIT: VAKBN: FY24 results look supportive for credit

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
  • 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
  • 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
  • 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
  • 01/08 $Benchmark Cncl of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
  • 01/08 $Benchmark Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) 5Y SOFR+42
• $36.95B Priced Tuesday, record $96.5B since Monday

• RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30     
• RES 2: 1.2550/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7 
• RES 1: 1.2476 Low Dec 20 
• PRICE: 1.2371 @ 11:54 GMT Jan 8
• SUP 1: 1.2325/2300 Intraday low / Low Apr 22 ‘24 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.2226 0.618 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing 
• SUP 3: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023  
• SUP 4: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing    

The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and today’s sharp sell-off reinforces the bear trend. The move down has also confirmed a resumption of the bear leg and an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.2300 next, a break of this level would open 1.2226, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm trend resistance has been defined at 1.2576, the Jan 7 high. 

CNN reporting that US President-elect Donald Trump is considering, “declaring a national economic emergency to provide legal justification" to enact universal tariffs on "allies and adversaries” citing four sources who confirmed that no final decision has been made.

• According to CNN, the “declaration would allow Trump to construct a new tariff program by using the International Economic Emergency Powers Act [IEEPA] which unilaterally authorizes a president to manage imports during a national emergency.”
• A source said, “Nothing is off the table,” acknowledging a “robust discussion over declaring a national emergency [...] has taken place.”
• A trade attorney who served in Trump’s first administration said: “I think the president has broad authority to impose tariffs for a variety of reasons, and there are a number of statutory bases to do so. IEEPA is certainly one of them.”
• CNN notes: “If Trump opted to declare a national economic emergency... it’s unclear what evidence he would cite,” but it should be noted that Trump’s team has previously floated declaring a national emergency to carry out deportations.
• The report comes in the wake of market volatility prompted by a Washington Post report on Monday suggesting that Trump is investigating a softer universal tariff plan - appearing to confirm a common view that Trump is likely to pursue more pragmatic, targetted tariffs.
• Trump nixed the WaPo report on Truth Social, suggesting that the new report may be strategically released to maintain a hardline tariff posture ahead of trade talks when Trump takes office on January 20.