GERMAN AUCTION PREVIEW: 2.50% Feb-35 Bund
Mar-12 08:52
This morning, Germany will hold its fourth 10-year Bund auction of the year. On offer will be E4.5bln of the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund.
- The size is in line with the last re-open of the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund on January 29.
- Recent auctions in the German 10y segment have passed smoothly, with solid bid-to-covers (in a 1.83x to 2.84x range since July), bid-to-offers (1.52x to 2.17x range since July) and the low prices above the secondary market mid-prices throughout 2024/5.
- For the last 2.50% Feb-35 Bund auction on 19 February, the bid-to-cover stood at 2.76x, while the bid-to-offer came in at 2.13x.
- Note that yesterday's Schatz auction was a little softer than usual with the stop price coming under the pre-market mid-price. We still expect today's auction to pass smoothly, but it may also show up some marginal stresses in the market.
- The fiscal situation in Germany is characterized by some uncertainty at the moment as an announcement on additional military and infrastructure spending last week saw German yields jump across the curve - however, for the announced deal to pass, approval from party "the Greens" is likely needed, who yesterday have mentioned they are ready to negotiate after rejecting the initial CDU/CSU/SPD draft proposal earlier.
- Bund positioning currently is short - see our latest Europe PI below.
- The next German auction will be E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614) on March 19, while the 2.50% Feb-35 Bund will be reopened next on April 2, for another E4.5bln.
- Timing: Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 10:30GMT / 11:30CET.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Feb-10 08:48
Of note:
EURUSD 2.78bn at 1.0290/1.0325.
USDJPY 1.14bn at 153.00.
USDCAD 1.16bn at 1.4425 (a little far).
EURUSD 1.15bn at 1.0300 (tue).
EURUSD 1.19bn at 1.0300 (wed).
AUDUSD 1.04bn at 0.6200 (wed).
USDJPY 2.25bn at 152.00 (fri).
AUDUSD 1.07bn at 0.6200 (fri).
USDCNY 2.16bn at 7.3000 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.0250 (2.01bn), 1.0260 (738mln), 1.0275 (615mln), 1.0290 (364mln), 1.0300 (864mln), 1.0315 (557mln), 1.0320 (471mln), 1.0325 (520mln), 1.0350 (380mln), 1.0375 (526mln), 1.0400 (1.31bn).
- USDJPY: 151.75 (551mln), 152.75 (335mln), 153.00 (1.14bn).
- USDCAD: 1.4370 (318mln), 1.4400 (696mln), 1.4425 (1.16bn).
GILTS: Hargreaves Lansdown Highlight Multi-Year Record Activity In January
Feb-10 08:42
Hargreaves Lansdown highlight increased gilt trading activity amongst their clients in January.
- When compared to January 2024, they note that “the number of trades and amount of assets invested this January were 75% higher. Both figures were much higher than December 2024 too, with the number of trades seeing a 93% increase.”
- The January figures are the highest levels they have witnessed since ’21, with the early January spike higher in yields and maturity of the 0.25% 31 January 2025 gilt cited as the key drivers of activity.
- A reminder that the 0.25% 31 January 2025 gilt was particularly attractive to retail investors, given its low coupon status and UK tax laws.
- Hargreaves Lansdown suggest that “with investors aware that the gilt was going to mature very soon, it’s likely many sold ahead of maturity and reinvested in other gilts, given the spike in yields.”
- Looking forwards, they expect February to be “another popular month for gilt purchases, largely linked to the maturity of the gilt on 31 January - many clients will have received their maturity payment last week and given continued elevated yields, reinvesting into other gilts may be attractive.”
- Note that we do not have Hargreaves Lansdown’s gilt trading volume to hand, but thought the above may be of interest given wider discussions surrounding the maturity of the 0.25% 31 January 2025 gilt and retail investor activity.
GILTS: Flat Start, Issuance & BoE Speak Due Tuesday, Little Scheduled Today
Feb-10 08:31
A flat start for gilts, futures last +3 at 93.23 (93.13-32 range).
- The short-term bullish cycle in the contract extended last week, initial support and resistance located at 92.50 & 94.35, respectively.
- Yields 0.5-1bp higher across the curve.
- 2s10s and 5s30s ~2.5bp and ~5bp off respective ‘25 closing highs.
- Goldman Sachs note that “gilts have continued to rally since the sharp sell-off in early January and are the best performer of the last few weeks. The extent of rally may mean gilts take a breather in the short run; however, we continue to expect a decline in Gilt risk premium over the coming year, and continue to recommend 10s30s flatteners.”
- Little of note on the UK calendar today, with comments from BoE Governor Bailey & MPC member Mann (after her dovish pivot) eyed on Tuesday.
- This week’s DMO issuance comes via a syndication of the new 4.50% Mar-35 gilt (we expect this to price tomorrow, pencilling in a size of GBP8.5-10.0bln) and GBP1bln of the 0.625% Mar-45 I/L line (Wednesday).
