EURJPY TECHS: 50-Day EMA Support Cracks
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.04/164.19 High Apr 3 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 160.70 @ 16:58 GMT Apr 4
- SUP 1: 159.03 Low Apr 4
- SUP 2: 158.90 Low Mar 10
- SUP 3: 158.75 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 158.39 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
The trend structure in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective - for now. The pullback has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Pivot support at 160.82, the 50-day EMA. has been pierced, but a clear break is needed to signal potential for a deeper retracement. For bulls, clearance of 164.19, the Mar 18 high, would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
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EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Reversal
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8385 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8385 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Mar 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8375 Intraday hugh
- PRICE: 0.8372 @ 16:09 GMT Mar 5
- SUP 1: 0.8322 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a near-term bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
A strong reversal in EURGBP from its recent lows highlights a short-term reversal. The cross has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The impulsive rally over the past 2 trading sessions signals scope for an extension towards 0.8385 and 0.8419, Fibonacci retracement points. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.8322, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low.
US TSYS: Latest Trump Headline Reaction
Little to no reaction to latest Trump headlines - or already discounted after earlier reports. Tsys hugging session lows, stocks near top end of session range, US$ index lower.
- "WHITE HOUSE: RECONSIDERING FUNDING FOR UKRAINE", Bbg
- “WHITE HOUSE: TRUMP IS OPEN TO HEARING ABOUT ADDITIONAL TARIFF EXEMPTIONS”, Rtrs
- "WHITE HOUSE: WILL GIVE ONE MONTH EXEMPTION ON ANY AUTOS COMING THROUGH USMCA", Rtrs
LOOK AHEAD: Thursday Data Calendar: Weekly Claims, Trade Balance, Fed Speak
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 6-Mar 0730 Challenger Job Cuts YoY (-39.5%, --)
- 6-Mar 0830 Initial Jobless Claims (242k, 233k)
- 6-Mar 0830 Continuing Claims (1.862M, 1.877M)
- 6-Mar 0830 Trade Balance (-$98.4B, -$128.8B)
- 6-Mar 0830 Nonfarm Productivity (1.2%, 1.2%)
- 6-Mar 0830 Unit Labor Costs (3.0%, 3.0%)
- 6-Mar 0845 Philly Fed Harker on economic education
- 6-Mar 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (1.0%, 0.6%)
- 6-Mar 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.7%, 0.7%)
- 6-Mar 1530 Fed Gov Waller economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 6-Mar 1900 Atl Fed Bostic economic outlook, Birmingham (no text, Q&A)
