BOE: A number of speakers this week: Pill and Bailey headline tomorrow
Apr-22 14:02
- It's potentially a big week for the BOE. Today we heard from external member Megan Greene who has long been on the more hawkish side of the spectrum but today in her comments on Bloomberg TV didn't use the word "cautious" or "gradual" as she had done in her previous remarks.
- Tomorrow we will hear from Chief Economist Huw Pill (also previously more on the hawkish side) and it will be interesting to see whether he uses any of the words "gradual", "careful" or "cautious" in his remarks, or indeed if he mentions monetary policy at all. He will be giving a speech at Leeds University on the BOE's research agenda (BEAR) and balance sheets.
- We will also be looking to see if there are any specific comments on the inflationary impacts of tariffs. Breeden said at the recent MNI Connect event that they were negative for growth but the impact on inflation was unclear. Greene said that originally today but then said later that there was a bigger disinflationary impact likely.
- After gilt markets close tomorrow we will hear from Governor Bailey at the IIF Global Outlook Forum. The timing of this event is a little uncertain - the IIF website states 12:25ET (17:25BST) for the start of a networking lunch with Bailey comments, but the BOE's website states Bailey's appearance is scheduled for 18:15BST. Again, if he changes tone it could be potentially noteworthy.
- Finally tomorrow we will hear from Breeden - but we don't think we will hear more on her views that we heard in the MNI Connect webcast two weeks ago.
- Looking later in the week, Lombardelli is a panellist at the Peterson Institute on Thursday with the topic ‘Review of monetary policy strategy by central banks’ (14:25 hrs BST) while Greene will appear in a fireside chat with the Atlantic Council on ‘Inflation, growth, and monetary policy’ (20:15BST Friday).
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
Mar-23 11:22
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Mar-21 21:00
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
Mar-21 21:00
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
