ECB: A Recap Of Today's ECB Speak

Apr-24 16:49

A recap of today’s various ECB speakers, with more colour on Rehn (here) and Lane (here). 

  • Rehn told Bloomberg the ECB shouldn’t rule out a larger interest rate cut as it retains full freedom of action and remains agile, with the need to be nimble echoing remarks prior to last week’s ECB decision (which drew unanimous support for a 25bp cut).
  • There is still firm conditionality from Rehn, with Bloomberg writing that whether a larger, 50bp cut may be considered, “depends on the inflation outlook in the medium term and how much worse or better the growth outlook will be”.
  • Later, when asked on Rehn’s remarks, ECB Chief Economist Lane said there was no reason to say we are always going to do the default 25bp [cut]. Philosophically, I agree with that but what I said to you earlier on, the growth performance is going to be marked down but it's still a growing economy. We have inflation to the downside but we don't need to be too dramatic about it […] there hasn’t been a dramatic change in the external environment or price pressures.
  • Elsewhere, Kazaks told CNBC that market pricing to cut two more times “is within the scope of the baseline scenario”. “Where we will go, we will see where the data takes us. From meeting-to-meeting, with an open-mind, steady hand, trying to ensure that we are at 2% over the medium-term.”
  • Simkus added that uncertainty leads in many cases to a more deflationary environment per Reuters reporting.
  • Holzmann was unsurprisingly the most hawkish, saying further rate cuts must wait for more tariff certainty, also per Reuters reporting. 

Historical bullets

US TSYS/SUPPLY: WI 2Y

Mar-25 16:47
  • WI recedes to 3.985% from 3.990%, 18.4bp rich to last month's stop: 4.169% high yield vs. 4.179% WI.

FED: US TSY 2Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $415 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL

Mar-25 16:45
  • US TSY 2Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $415 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL

FOREX: Most Recent Comments on EURUSD

Mar-25 16:43
  • JP Morgan notes the dollar-downtrend has consolidated of late, perhaps reflecting heightened sensitivity to early-April tariff delivery, but for now JPM stick with more medium-term shorts. They continue to run USD-short positions via DXY, and on across a range of pairwise expressions (vs EUR, Scandis, JPY, AUD). These are strategic views, representing a combination of 1) the longer-term implications of the European fiscal plan, 2) JPM’s constructive Scandi views and 3) the broader ongoing carry-to-value rotation which should benefit from continued moderation of US data.
  • ING said they saw upside risks for EURUSD today given the US consumer confidence risk event, but their preference remains for a depreciation to <1.07 in April.
  • Rabobank see risks that EUR/USD could dip further on a 1-to-3-month view before climbing to 1.12 on a 1-year outlook.