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New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.

• Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
• Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”

Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years

Source: Gallup

Checking direction on skew package:

• 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
• 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07