AUSSIE BONDS: ACGB May-30 Auction Result

• MNI: UK OCT-DEC MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +3.3% :Brightmine

• Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to December dropped to 3.3%, this is the second consecutive softening in pay awards following median rewards remaining at 4.0% between July and October 2024.
• The press release notes, "the combination of rising NICs and ongoing economic pressures is likely to result in a decrease in 2025 pay awards compared to the median increase of 4.5% recorded in 2024."
• On 2025, from analysis of 29 settlements to date, Brightmine estimates median pay awards of 3.5% for January 2025, and 3% for the whole of 2025 (from median prediction amongst 289 organisations), this is down from a median pay award for 2024 at 4.5%.
• Note that this is also at the bottom end of the initial findings from the BOE's Agents which suggested in the December MPC Minutes that average 2025 pay awards will be between 3-4%. This would likely therefore be encouraging data for the doves on the MPC.
• The rolling quarter of Brightmine data is based on 12 pay awards that came into effect to the end of December 2024, representing around 3,000 UK employees (down from 22 pay award covering 227,000 employees in November).

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11  
• PRICE: 141.15 @ 15:56 GMT Jan 21
• SUP 1: 140.00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: 139.38 - 2.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.87- 3.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing    

A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes the 140.00 psychological handle next. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. For now, short-term gains are considered corrective.