PERU: Additional Analyst Views On March CPI Inflation, BCRP Rate Outlook
Apr-02 15:40
- Deutsche Bank says that while inflation has likely reached its trough for the year, they estimate it will remain within the target band over the forecast horizon. They expect annual headline and core inflation to end 2025 at 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively. A benign inflation outlook and the lack of sustained demand-pull pressures generate the conditions for further easing, although the BCRP’s adherence to a more cautious approach amid a volatile external backdrop make it hard to pin down the timing of a new cut. For now, DB pencils in a 25bp cut in Q3.
- Itaú expects inflation to remain within the BCRP’s inflation target range through 2025, with activity around its potential level of 3%. They believe that the BCRP is likely to hold its monetary policy rate at 4.75% this year amid a challenging external scenario and high trade uncertainty. Still, they believe that risks are skewed towards an additional 25bp cut, taking the monetary policy rate to 4.5%.
- Scotiabank believes that in the coming months inflation will have a modest upward and conservative trend, but remain below the midpoint of the target range until Q3 and continue increasing to 2.3% by the end of the year. They expect the BCRP to remain on hold in April, amid good dynamics in economic activity and international uncertainty. The BCRP could be encouraged to make the next cut once the Fed does, potentially late Q2 or early Q3.
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US: Trump To Announce $100B TSMC Investment
Mar-03 15:34
13:30 ET 18:30 GMT: US President Donald Trump is set to announce a USD$100 billion investment, over four years, by TSMC in the United States.
- The Wall Street Journal reports: "The investment would be used to build out cutting-edge chip-making facilities. Such an expansion would advance a long-pursued U.S. goal to regrow the domestic semiconductor industry after manufacturing fled largely to Asian countries in recent decades."
- The Taiwan-based company, the world's largest contract chip maker, agreed to build a semiconductor factory in Arizona in 2020. The deal, struck with the Biden administration, expanded into a pledge for a total investment of USD$65 billion.
- In November 2024, one of the final Biden administration awards from the USD$39 billion 2022 Chips and Science Act issued grants of up to USD$6 billion to TSMC to boost chip manufacturing in the US.
- Former President Joe Biden said, at the time, the agreement “demonstrates how we are ensuring that the progress made to date will continue to unfold in the coming years, benefiting communities all across the country,”
- Separately, the White House issued a statement touting "more big wins" for Trump, including a "$6 billion plan" from Honda to "expand its U.S.-based manufacturing" and "results" from border security initiatives.
