AUD: A$ Little Changed As Markets Wait For US CPI Out Later
Aussie is little changed during today’s APAC trading despite better risk appetite as there has been little new information and currencies wait for US February CPI data out later today. A step back from an escalation of the US-Canada trade war and Ukraine’s agreement to a US ceasefire proposal helped to boost risk assets. AUDUSD is down 0.1% to 0.6294 after reaching 0.6300 earlier and has been in a narrow range. It couldn’t sustain breaks above 0.6300 on Tuesday. The USD index is 0.1% higher.
- Aussie crosses are in tight ranges with AUDJPY up around 0.1% to 93.17 after reaching 93.26, AUDNZD slightly higher at 1.1023, AUDEUR 0.5770 and AUDGBP 0.4864.
- Equities are generally stronger with the KOSPI up 1.4%, Hang Seng +0.4% and Topix +0.8% and S&P e-mini +0.3% but the ASX is down 1.4%. Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.7% to $66.71/bbl. Copper is 0.5% stronger and iron ore is around $102/t.
- US CPI for February is out later (see MNI CPI Preview) and forecast to show a 0.1pp moderation in headline and core to 2.9% y/y and 3.2% y/y respectively. February budget and real earnings data are also released. The BoC decision is announced and it is forecast to cut rates 25bp. The ECB’s Lagarde and Lane speak at the “ECB and Its Watchers” conference.
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AUSTRALIA: Survey Data The Key Information This Week
In a data light week, the focus will likely be on local survey data, outside of international developments.
- On Tuesday, Westpac consumer confidence for February prints. In January it fell 0.7% m/m to 92.1 but it may rise in February as there have been increased expectations voiced in the mainstream media of a rate cut at the RBA’s February meeting.
- The NAB business survey for January is also out on Tuesday. Confidence has been oscillating around the zero mark over the last 12 months. Conditions on the other hand have been trending lower since Q4 2023 and printed at +6 in December. Cost and price components will be monitored with purchase costs trending higher since October.
- Wednesday sees the new ABS quarterly lending data for Q4. The monthly series were discontinued after the September figures were released.
- Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations for February are published on Thursday. In January they eased 0.2pp to 4.0%. The lower-than-expected Q4 core CPI data may pressure it lower but petrol prices are higher in February compared with end-January.
- There are no RBA events this week ahead of the February 18 decision.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: Former Central Banks Discuss Monetary Policy & The Trade War
Former central bankers discuss how monetary policy will react to a potential trade war. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
CHINA: Central Brank Drains Liquidity via this morning’s OMO.
- The PBOC issued CNY215bn of 7-day reverse repo at 1.5% in this morning’s operations.
- Today’s maturities CNY449bn of 14-day reverse repo issued in advance of the Lunar New Year holiday.
- Net liquidity withdrawal today CNY234bn
- The PBOC controls and maintains liquidity in the interbank market through the issuance of 7-day reverse repo.
- The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day index declined to 1.6187%
- The China interbank Overnight repo rate rose 3bps to 1.8439 and the 7 day was flat at 1.7960%.
