EM ASIA CREDIT: ADSEZ (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) Adani uplifted as short seller shuts
"Adani Stocks Rise, Analysts See Folding of Hindenburg Supportive" - BBG * U.S. Short seller, Hinden...
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GILTS: Gilts Lead Losses In Bonds After UK Wage Data
Gilts lead losses across wider core global FI markets following the firmer-than-expected UK wage data.
- Futures pierce key support at 93.40, strengthening the bearish case. Contract as low as 93.27 before a modest rebound to 93.48.
- Next downside target at 93.00, round number support.
- Yields 3.5-6.5bp higher.
- 10s above 4.50% for the first time since November 20 before fading back below.
- Next upside target there comes in at the November 14 high, 4.566%.
- 2s10s ~2bp flatter at 6.4bp, within multi-week range.
- 5s30s 3bp flatter at 67.5bp, 9bp below last week’s multi-month high.
- Spread to Bunds set to close at a fresh cycle high, last ~5bp wider at 224bp. Next upside target the ’22 mini-Budget closing high at 227.5bp.
- GBP STIRs extend their early hawkish move.
- SONIA futures now flat to -11.0.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 62bp of cuts through ’25 vs. 73bp late yesterday i.e. less than 2.5x 25bp cuts are now priced through next year.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Dec-24 | 4.711 | +1.1 |
Feb-25 | 4.549 | -15.1 |
Mar-25 | 4.495 | -20.5 |
May-25 | 4.355 | -34.6 |
Jun-25 | 4.299 | -40.1 |
Aug-25 | 4.188 | -51.2 |
Sep-25 | 4.170 | -53.0 |
Nov-25 | 4.107 | -59.3 |
Dec-25 | 4.082 | -61.8 |
SILVER TECHS: Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.338 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $30.463 @ 08:03 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A clear resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a continuation of recent gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards $33.125, the Nov 1 high. The short-term bull trigger is $32.338, the Dec 12 high.
EGB OPTIONS: Schatz outright call buyer
DUF5 107.40c, bought for half in 6.5k.
