CAPITAL GOODS: Agco Headlines

AFP reports that former far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen has died aged 96. Le Pen co-founded the Front National in 1972, with the party's rise under Jean-Marie Le Pen culminating in his shock appearance in the 2002 presidential election run-off against incumbent Jacques Chirac.

• His daughter Marine Le Pen assumed the party leadership in 2012, and has since sought to present a more electable face of the far-right. Jean-Marie Le Pen was defeated by a margin of 82% to 18% in 2002, compared to margins of 66%-34% and 59%-41% in 2017 and 2022 respectively for Marine Le Pen.
• Jean-Marie was expelled from the Front National in 2015 amid a feud with Marine as she attempted to 'detoxify' the party's brand (the party was renamed Rassemblement National in 2018), making Jean-Marie a sidelined figure. As such, his passing is unlikely to have any significant impact on the French political landscape amid continued efforts by the Bayrou gov't to reach agreement with opposition groups on passing a 2025 state budget. 

Hard act to follow after Monday's record $59.55B corporate debt issuance - would have been a record even without $12B Saudi Arabia & $8.5B Mexico multi-tranche issuance. European Investment Bank (EIB) leads so far today with $6B 5Y SOFR:

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 01/07 $6B European Investment Bank (EIB) 5Y SOFR+42
  • 01/07 $500M DBJ WNG 10Y SOFR+73
  • 01/07 $Benchmark World Bank 7Y +54
  • 01/07 $Benchmark ADB 3Y SOFR+31
  • 01/07 $Benchmark CIBC 5Y SOFR+75a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+60a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Santander 5Y +135a, 10Y +160a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark Kexim 3Y +55a, 3Y SOFR, 5Y +75a, 10Y +90a
  • 01/07 $Benchmark SMFG 5.25Y +100, 5.25Y SOFR, 7Y +110a, 10Y +120a

• In the FI space, the trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sell-off plus Monday’s extension, reinforces this theme. Sights are on key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial resistance is seen at 133.48, last Friday’s high. Key short-term resistance is at 134.10, the 20-day EMA.
• The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent short-term gains appear to have been corrective. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.