FINANCIALS: AIB Group (AIB) - Q4 Results

The Eurozone manufacturing PMI saw a five tenth upward revision to 46.6 (vs 46.1 flash, 45.1 prior), driven by a notable upward revision in Germany to 45.0 (vs 44.1 flash).

• Both new orders and production saw smaller declines than in December, helping the EZ aggregate tick higher.  Spain and Greece continued to outperform Eurozone peers.
• Downticks in industrial employment were noted across the four major Eurozone economies. From the EZ release: “Employment levels were cut further at the start of 2025, with the rate of job shedding accelerating fractionally. This marked a twentieth successive month that factory staffing numbers have declined”.
• There was an acceleration in input cost price pressures in January, and business “refrained from passing on higher costs to their customers”, bringing a “four-month sequence of discounting to an end”.
• December industrial production data is due from France (Weds), Germany (Fri) and Spain (Fri) this week.

The dovish repricing linked to tariff-related growth worry promotes bull steepening on the German curve this morning.

• 2s10s within 0.5bp of the October 21 ’22 high (36.7bp).
• 5s20s ~3bp off the ’24 treble top area (~51.1bp).
• Levels above are based on closing prices.

Continued flow in Euribor calls, although a little more mixed this time around:

• ERM5 97.9375/98.1875 call spread 4K given at 7.25.
• ERU5 98.25/98.4375 call spread paper paid 4.25 on 7K vs 98.035, 13% delta.