TRANSPORTATION: Air France-KLM; should refi hybrids (x2)

• Some record Volumes in the Euribor strip as desks reprice the RTate outlook following the German Debt break.
• ERZ5 daily volume in one Chart, the bottom rigjht spike is the traded volume today vs the rest.

• RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
• RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg              
• RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.6354 High Feb 26 
• PRICE: 0.6320 @ 15:08 GMT Mar 5
• SUP 1: 0.6187 Low Mar 4
• SUP 2: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading higher today. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A stronger recovery would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose key short-term resistance at 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a bull cycle. On the downside, a move below Tuesday's 0.6187 low, would reinstate a bear threat and open the bear trigger at 0.6088, the Feb 3 low.

• "I favoured a causial [sic] and gradual approach to the withdrawal of monetary policy restrictiveness. That's been the case really, for the last year. I spoke of this in the summer of last year, and I've supported communication in that direction. Following the February MPC meeting, I think there's quite a lot of consistency and continuity in that approach."
• "The summer of last year, and I've supported communication in that direction following that February MPC meeting, I think there's quite a lot of consistency and continuity in that approach. So looking forward, my assessment is that further progress with this inflation would permit further withdrawal of monetary policy restrictiveness and further reductions in bank rate over the rest of this year. but the magnitude and pace of bank rate cuts has to depend on how the risks around that disinflationary path evolve."
• "I agree with the point that there are two sided risks."
• "When I first talked about [the 3 cases], I focused mainly on now what we call case two and case three. I think that reflects where the bulk of my perspective is. I would say that I haven't personally changed my own kind of view of the probabilities, which have been tilted that way for the bulk of this period. And I sort of see the data that we've seen over the last six to nine months, not so much as a surprise, but more a support of that view I've maintained."