AUSTRALIA: ALP Retains Narrow Lead As Campaign Enters Final Stretch
Final opinion polling before the 3 May federal election shows, as has been the case for the duration of the campaign, PM Anthony Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) set to retain its majority in the House of Representatives. On the primary vote, the ALP and the main opposition centre-right Liberal/National party coalition are within the margin of error in most polls, making them an effective dead heat. However, judged on the 'two-party-preferred-vote' polling, which attempts to distribute votes in the context of Australia's complex electoral system, the ALP has maintained a relatively steady lead in recent weeks (see charts below).
- The Australian election being viewed by some observers in a similar context to the 28 April Canadian federal election. While dealing with idiosyncratic policy issues, in both Canada and Australia, the Conservatives and the L/NP coalition have historically sat as pro-business, centre-right parties. However, under respective leaders Pierre Poilievre and Peter Dutton, both have moved in a more populist direction, a shift some have seen as an effort to emulate US President Donald Trump's (election-winning) style.
- However, polls have borne out that this shift has seen voters of the left who may not have usually been inclined to vote for moderate social democrats to swing behind the Liberals and Labor respectively, in order to shut the right out of power.
- Political betting data from Polymarket shows an 84% implied probability that Albanese retains power. It also shows bettors assigning a 42% implied probability that Dutton loses the Dickson, Qld. electorate he has held since 2001.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, Primary Vote (LHS) and Two-Party-Preferred-Vote (RHS), % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Essential, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic, YouGov, Newspoll, Redbridge/Accent, Freshwater Strategy, DemosAU, ANU, MNI
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
