EMISSIONS: Amazon Aims To Reduce Emissions By Selling Carbon Credits To Supplier

Reuters reports that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has claimed in a press conference that the US and Russia have agreed to "remove barriers for diplomatic missions" and "to appoint envoys as soon as possible", following talks in Riyadh with a US delegation led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Lavrov added: "There was also high interest to lift barriers for economic cooperation".

• Lavrov said the "talks were useful, we listened and heard each other" and "agreed to form process for Ukraine conflict settlement". Lavrov added, "we also agreed to create conditions to restore our cooperation in full".

According to a US State Department readout of the meeting, US and Russia officials agreed to four principles: 

1. "Establish a consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship with the objective of taking steps necessary to normalize the operation of our respective diplomatic missions.
2. "Appoint respective high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides.
3. "Lay the groundwork for future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and historic economic and investment opportunities which will emerge from a successful end to the conflict in Ukraine.
4. "The parties to today’s meetings pledge to remain engaged to make sure the process moves forward in a timely and productive manner."

MNI’s event with ECB Executive Board member Cipollone is on “The ECB's Balance Sheet Policies and Implications in the Current Economic Context” is due to begin at 1400GMT/1500CET. Text of his opening remarks will be released on the ECB’s website (sign up here).

• Euribor futures are currently little changed through the blues, having drifted away from session lows over the last few hours. Volumes at the front of the strip have been a little below recent averages, with regional focus on Friday’s February flash PMIs. Options volumes have also been relatively contained.
• ECB-dated OIS price 24bps of easing through March, with 77bps of cumulative cuts priced through year-end.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's index of general business conditions came in stronger than expected in February at 5.7 (a 3-month high, vs 0.0 expected, -12.6 prior).  But the volatilty and details of the report raise the question of whether the Trump administration's threat of tariffs on New York State-neighboring Canada (implementation postponed to Mar 1 from Feb 1) and accompanying retaliatory tariffs, which rose to prominent attention ahead of the February survey dates (Feb 3-11), had something to do with the results.

• The 6-month ahead business outlook - which jumped 9.8 points in January to 36.7, the highest since Dec 2021 - pulled back 14.5 points in February to 22.2. That was the lowest since May 2024. The NY Fed didn't comment on the reasons for the pullback, merely saying in the report that "optimism about the outlook dropped noticeably".
• Adding to the theory that the survey shows a tariff impact, prices indices soared: current prices paid rose to 1 23-month high 40.2 (29.1 prior), with the 6-month expected prices paid up to a 32-month high. Current prices received jumped to 19.6 (9.3 prior), a 17-month high, though 6-month ahead prices received actually ticked lower to 42.4 (43.0 the month prior was a 25-month high).
• Contrary to the tariff thesis, New Orders, which fell to a 3-month low -8.6 in January (from positive 4.3 in Dec and a post-Dec 2021 high 20.7 in Nov), bounced strongly to 11.4 - back to a 3-month high and the 2nd strongest since mid-2023, so the "hard" data doesn't quite square with the concerns seen over the 6-month-ahead period.
• The Employment Index, which shifted positive in January for just the 2nd time in 15 months (1.2), fell back into negative territory in February (-3.6).