CAPITAL GOODS: Amphenol (APH A3/A-/NR): 1Q25 Results Headlines

SFIU5 95.45/95.75/96.05 call fly 10K given at 9.5.

In contrast with the solid daily volumes for FX derivatives markets since Trump's inauguration, volumes have been waning over the course of March, with Friday seeing the lowest FX options activity cross the DTCC of the year outside of February 17th (Presidents Day).

• Lower volumes come alongside sliding front-end implied vols across G10 FX - which may signal that the market's concerns over tariffs are more elevated for the Eurozone relative to Canada, Mexico, Japan and elsewhere.
• For Canada specifically, this has led to a significant premium for CAD realised vols over implied - even when incorporating the upcoming election on April 28th (the realised/implied CAD ratio is the highest among G10 currencies, see below).
• Subdued vols aren't uniform across G10, however, with EUR/USD one-week implied averaging over 5 points over the course of March, ahead of the YTD average - and will likely remain supported headed into 'Liberation Day' on April 2nd. This risk premium is effectively mirrored in the inability for European stock markets to hold their tariff-tripped gains across Monday trade.
• This leaves pro-cyclical currencies, namely NOK and SEK, catching options markets off-guard. The 52w Z-score for EURNOK and EURSEK 1m risk reversals comfortably the lowest among G10 FX.  

• A firmer tone for risk keeps the likes of AUD and GBP among the best performing currencies in G10 on Monday. Supportive GBPUSD price action may be underpinned by the slight hawkish bias to last week’s BOE meeting, and the UK flash services PMI surprising to the upside this morning, providing a moderate sterling tailwind.
• Bullish technical conditions remain intact for the pair, as a plethora of short-term risk events are awaited this week. Standing out here is the Spring Statement, that will include the OBR's forecasts and the release of the DMO's financing needs (including the gilt remit). Shortly ahead of the Spring Statement on Wednesday, the ONS will release February inflation data, and it is worth highlighting that Governor Bailey is due to deliver a speech on “growth in the UK economy” today at 1800GMT.
• Referencing the latest open interest via the CFTC report, SocGen note the market is longer of GBP than EUR, which SG believe sits uncomfortably with the parlous state of the UK’s public finances. They state there’s a good case for being long EUR/GBP here, regardless of this morning’s stronger PMI data, and remain bearish GBP vs. the Scandies.
• Pricing for an GBPUSD straddle expiring on Friday incorporates a move of +/- 90 pips from current spot levels of 1.2945. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2855, the 20-day EMA, whereas on the topside, the bull trigger is at 1.3015 (March 20 high).