CHILE: Analyst Views On Jan CPI Inflation, Consistent With Continued Pause
Feb-07 14:24
- Goldman Sachs says that inflation printed above their forecast, driven in part by higher prices in the other non-core category. They also note that this was the final large increase scheduled for electricity tariffs. If electricity tariffs are removed, inflation is tracking visibly lower, albeit still above target, at 3.7%. They expect sequential inflation readings to remain somewhat firm in Q1 but anticipate a fast decline of annual inflation in H2, benefitting from the large increases to electricity tariffs that took place in 2024.
- Itaú sees inflation risks tilted to the upside amid indexation pressures and feedback from business surveys that signal a preference to increase the rate of FX passthrough to final prices. They expect short-term inflation estimates to be revised further to the upside and consolidate the view of a prolonged pause by the BCCh. The level of persistence of the recent CLP rally may alleviate the rise of medium-term inflation expectations and cool market talk of possible rate hikes this year.
- JP Morgan notes that electricity hikes explained 33bp of the monthly CPI variation. Both headline and core sequential CPI momentum started to ease, with the last 3m annualised pace running at 4.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Their base case remains that the central bank will hold the policy rate stable in March.
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BONDS: OAT Block trade
Jan-08 14:24
OAT Block trade, suggest seller:
- OATH5 ~1.66k at 121.86.
There's also wider selling emerging again in EGBs, but small gradual moves for now.
US DATA: Surprisingly Healthy Initial Jobless Claims
Jan-08 13:58
The jobless claims data were on balance a little better than expected. New claims hit their lowest single week since Feb’24 and with the four-week average not too far off at its lowest since April, but continuing claims surprised a touch higher. It looks like the trend of companies managing headcount through slower rehiring rather than layoffs is still intact.
- Initial jobless claims surprised lower at 201k (sa, cons 215k) in the week to Jan 4 after an unrevised 211k.
- The four-week average fell 10k to 213k, its lowest since Apr’24 and through the 2019 average.
- Continuing claims on the other hand were a little higher than expected at 1867k (sa, cons 1860k) in the week to Dec 28 after a downward revised 1834k (initial 1844k).
- Timing of the festive period can make seasonal adjustment difficult but the non-seasonally adjusted 305k is at the low end of recent years.
- Note that by state, the 22.4k increase in NY (which drove the 21.3k increase in national claims) to 37.5k was in keeping with typical starts to the year.
PIPELINE: $4.25B IADB 5Y SOFR Debt Launched
Jan-08 13:56
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $4.25B #IADB 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $1.5B #Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $500M Novelis 5NC2
- 01/08 $Benchmark AIIB 5Y +47a
- 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Northwestern Mutual 5Y +70a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Deutsche Bank 4NC3 fix/SOFR
- 01/08 $Benchmark Codelco 10Y +195a, 30Y +215a
- 01/08 $Benchmark HF Sinclair 6Y +165a, 10Y +185a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Santander UK 6.25NC5.25 +150a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
