ECB VIEW: Analysts Drifting More Hawkish, Still On Balance See April Cut

ERN5 98.25/98.3125/98.375c fly, bought for 0.75 in 5k.

• In the equity space, Monday’s initial sell-off in the {US} S&P E-Minis contract and breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. Initial resistance is at 6069.00, Tuesday’s intraday high. Gains are considered corrective, however, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high. {EU} EUROSTOXX 50 futures have recovered from Monday’s low. However, the sharp reversal lower earlier this week signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5170.66. A resumption of the bear leg would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5065.54. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high.

Pre-NY trade in the TYH5 109.00 puts sees ~8.6K lots change hands at 0-26 over multiple clips, initially triggered by a seller.