EGBS: 10-year RAGBs Underperform Semi-core Peers Following Syndication Mandate
Jan-27 11:59
The 10-year RAGB/Bund spread has widened ~2bps since this morning’s dual-tranche syndication mandate, now at 37bps. This leaves 10-year RAGBs underperforming semi-core peers (Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal and France) intraday.
The timing of Austria’s first syndication had been uncertain due to questions surrounding the budget outlook. MNI had looked for a transaction this week or in the first half of February – with a lean towards the latter.
A new 10-year Feb-25 RAGB maturing 20 February 2035 will be launched alongside a tap of the 1.85% May-49 Green RAGB – in line with MNI’s expectations.
A reminder that the EU decided not to proceed with an Excessive Debt Procedure on Austria earlier this month, after negotiators attempting to form a right-wing coalition presented a E6.4bln savings plan.
On Jan 10, Fitch revised Austria’s outlook to Negative from Stable (rating affirmed at AA+).
As of Q3 ‘24, the 4Q rolling sum of the budget balance was -3.7% of GDP (vs -3.3% in Q2). Both Bloomberg analysts and the EC expect the 2024 budget balance to print at -3.6% of GDP, down from -2.6% in 2023.