BRAZIL: Announcement on Curbing Food Prices Expected Today

Crude oil strength on the back of US President Trump’s expected presidential memorandum on Iran provides characteristic support to the NOK, with EURNOK now 0.45% lower today and eyeing the Jan 15 low at 11.6448. Clearance of this level would expose 11.6000, a notable pivot level going back to mid-2023, which closely coincides with the Dec 4th low (11.5998) and the 61.8% retracement of the June-August '24 rally (11.5953).

• NOKSEK has moved away from earlier session lows, but upside has been contained by continued intraday SEK strength, with European equity futures still underpinned.
• EURSEK tests the Oct 22nd low at 11.3809, which shields trendline support drawn from the December 2023 low at 11.3562.
• Tomorrow’s Scandinavian calendar sees services PMI data from Sweden. However, more interest will be on Thursday’s Swedish January flash inflation and Norwegian Q4 earnings data.

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Peter Navarro, the White House senior counsellor for trade and manufacturing and a key strategist of President Donald Trump’s trade policy, has spoken on tariffs at a Politico Live event. Stream.  Key remarks below.

• Navarro says he expects a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to take place today to discuss tariffs. Says "it's up to [Trump]" if China gets a tariff pause.
• Ask about potential 60% tariffs on China, as floated by Trump on campaign trail. Says the admin is "going to proceed in a measured way using investigative studies... everything is going to be data-driven."
• Navarro says media fundamentally misunderstands intentions of tariffs by fixating on “downsides”. He characterises tariffs as an action against fentanyl: “This is a drug war, this is not a trade war,” later adds it is also a “terrorist war and border invasion war.”
• Navarro says that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is leading a DHS review of narcotic and immigration measures, to be undertaken during the 30-day pause of Canada/Mexico tariff. Says "let's see what happens" when asked if Trump will threaten more action at the end of the pause.
• Navarro addresses logic of threatening tariffs against Canada: “Mexican drug cartels are expanding in Canada…” cites ‘de minimis’ loophole exempting tariffs for packages valued at $800 or less, accuses Canada of allowing terrorists to cross border.
• Navarro: “If Trump succeeds in trade actions, we will structurally shift American economy from over-reliance on income taxes to tariff revenues... Tariff revenues will play an important role, countries won't have to pay tariffs if they invest in US.”