NATGAS: Any Resumption Of Russian Flows To Europe Likely To Be Modest
Feb-14 11:06
Any potential resumption of Russian gas flows to Europe likely to be modest initially, according to analysts cited by Montel.
- Talks between US President Trump and Russian President Putin this week have raised the possibility of a peace deal.
- “Although not officially part of any ceasefire negotiations, there are related talks to resume some Russian gas flows via Ukraine and into the EU,” said Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group.
- Gloystein sees “modest volumes” of Russian gas flows to Europe initially of between 15-40 mcm/d. “Despite the modest volumes, such an agreement would take significant pressure out of the European gas market,” Gloystein said
- Trevor Sikorski of Energy Aspects said transit flows via Ukraine would be the mostly likely route to Europe for any returning Russian gas flows. He expects that only 10-12bcm would be likely to return.
- “I assume that a resumption of [Russian] gas supplies will happen but not immediately,” said a Greek gas trader cited by Montel, adding it would probably take “several months”.
- Last week, Montel cited Irene Rummelhoff of Equinor as saying an end to the war could see the return of up to 35bcm of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, via Ukraine and Nord Stream 2.
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - EUROSTOXX50 Trend Structure Remains Bullish
Jan-15 11:05
- In the equity space, a bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been breached. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA.
- A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support is at 4939.33, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, the 0.764 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing.
US INFLATION: PCE Forecasts Adjusted Upward After PPI (1/2)
Jan-15 11:05
Some revisions to pre-PPI estimates of core PCE that we have seen are understandably to the upside, on the order of about 0.03pp (almost entirely due to the outsized increase in airfare PPI, offset at least partially by other PCE-relevant components, as we had flagged yesterday). Pre-PPI, core PCE consensus was 0.20% M/M, and if that is correct, now it looks like the gap between core CPI (0.24% consensus) and PCE will be closer to zero.
Post-PPI release core PCE M/M estimates include:
- Goldman Sachs: 0.22% (0.18% pre-PPI)
- ING: 0.3% (only a rounded forecast provided)
- Nomura: 0.272% (0.242% pre-PPI)
- Wrightson ICAP: 0.2% ((only a rounded forecast provided; notes the PPI components did not change their estimates).
SONIA: Call spread vs Put spread trades again
Jan-15 10:54
SFIU5 95.85/96.00cs vs 95.50/95.35ps, bought the cs for 1.5 in 9k total.
