NATGAS: Any Resumption Of Russian Flows To Europe Likely To Be Modest

• In the equity space, a bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support, has been breached. This strengthens a bearish theme and sights are on 5784.00, the Nov 4 low and an important short-term support. Initial pivot resistance is seen at 5987.43, the 50-day EMA.
• A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and the latest pullback appears corrective. Initial support is at 4939.33, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this EMA would undermine a bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance at 5040.00, Dec 9 high, has recently been pierced. Clearance of it would resume the bull cycle that started on Nov 21 and open 5068.13, the 0.764 projection of the Nov 21 - Dec 9 - 20 price swing.

Some revisions to pre-PPI estimates of core PCE that we have seen are understandably to the upside, on the order of about 0.03pp (almost entirely due to the outsized increase in airfare PPI, offset at least partially by other PCE-relevant components, as we had flagged yesterday). Pre-PPI, core PCE consensus was 0.20% M/M, and if that is correct, now it looks like the gap between core CPI (0.24% consensus) and PCE will be closer to zero. 

Post-PPI release core PCE M/M estimates include:

• Goldman Sachs: 0.22% (0.18% pre-PPI)
• ING: 0.3% (only a rounded forecast provided)
• Nomura: 0.272% (0.242% pre-PPI)
• Wrightson ICAP: 0.2% ((only a rounded forecast provided; notes the PPI components did not change their estimates).

SFIU5 95.85/96.00cs vs 95.50/95.35ps, bought the cs for 1.5 in 9k total.