FRANCE: Appointment Of Prime Minister Delayed Until Friday
Reuters reporting that the French presidential office has issued a statement noting that an appointment of a prime minister has been "postponed until Friday morning."
- Reuters notes that, "French President Emmanuel Macron said two days ago he wanted to name a new head of government within 48 hours. The new team is due to replace the one led by Michel Barnier, who resigned last week after far-right and leftist lawmakers voted to topple his government, plunging France into its second major political crisis in six months."
- Clovis Casali at France24 reported a short time ago, “the problem [for Macron] is very simple: He needs to find someone who can get some kind of majority in parliament, with no single party holding an outright majority... He needs to pick a person who will get some kind of majority at the National Assembly, or at least who won't suffer a vote of no confidence,”
- Polymarket shows considerable uncertainty over the appointment, with the market sensitive to headlines. Centrist François Bayrou remains a slight favourite, with a 31% implied probability of taking the job, down from as high as 70% yesterday. Behind him, five other candidates, including Roland Lescure, Bernard Cazeneuve, Catherine Vautrin, David Lisnard, and Sébastien Lecornu are also considered credible selections.
- Politico notes that Macron risks another government collapse if he selects Bayrou: "Representatives from different left-wing parties have already made clear that they are against Bayrou’s potential appointment."
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: October CPI, Fed Speak
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Nov-13 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-10.8%, --)
- Nov-13 0830 MN Fed Kashkari on Bbg TV
- Nov-13 0830 CPI MoM (0.2%, 0.2%); YoY (2.4%, 2.6%)
- Nov-13 0830 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.3%); YoY (3.3%, 3.3%)
- Nov-13 0830 CPI Index NSA (315.301, 315.579)
- Nov-13 0830 CPI Core Index SA (320.767, 321.646)
- Nov-13 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (1.4% rev, --)
- Nov-13 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (1.1% rev, --)
- Nov-13 0930 NY Fed Williams welcome remarks teacher academy
- Nov-13 0945 Dallas Fed Logan, open remarks energy conf (text, no Q&A)
- Nov-13 1130 US Tsy $64B 17W bill auction
- Nov-13 1300 StL Fed Musalem on economy/mon-pol (text, Q&A)
- Nov-13 1330 KC Fed Schmid keynote remarks energy conf (text)
- Nov-13 1400 Monthly Budget Statement ($64.3B, -$225.0B)
GBPUSD TECHS: Breaches Support
- RES 4: 1.3389 High Oct 1
- RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3175 High Oct 4
- RES 1: 1.2979/3048 20-day EMA / High Nov 6 and a key resistance
- PRICE: 1.2736 @ 16:57 GMT Nov 12
- SUP 1: 1.2734 Low Nov 12
- SUP 2: 1.2665 Low Aug 8 and key support
- SUP 3. 1.2659 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
The trend condition in GBPUSD solidified as bearish. Tuesday’s move lower has resulted in a print below key short-term support at 1.2834, the Nov 6 low. The clear break of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend, compounded by the weakness through 1.2762, the Aug 13 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode condition, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3048, the Nov 6 high.
SECURITY: Biden Administration Still Confident Of Ceasefire Agreement In Lebanon
US President Joe Biden's Middle East envoy, Amos Hochstein, told reporters that the US continues to believe that a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon is possible, stating, "I am full of hope that we will succeed... there is a shot". However, the political influence of the Biden Administration is increasingly constrained as Israel opens up new lines of communication with US President-elect Donald Trump - including a meeting between Trump and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer at Mar-a-Lago on Sunday.
- Barak Ravid at Axios reports: "Dermer met today at the White House with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and President Biden's advisors [Hochstein] and Brett McGurk and discussed with them the cease-fire agreement in Lebanon. Hochstein said that Dermer presented Israel's position and now the US needs to get a response from Lebanon... Hochstein emphasized that there will be no involvement of Russia in the cease-fire agreement..."
- Biden met with Israeli President Issac Herzog at the White House a short time ago. Biden said in brief remarks at the top: "You know that our commitment to Israel is ironclad, and we share a deep a friendship."
- Herzog said, referencing a recent rocket attack that killed two Israeli civilians: "This is what we're going through from Lebanon... We're fighting hard, we're protecting our people and I know that you're working very hard to make sure that this war will end and that will there will be, first and foremost security for the people, of Israel, as well as for the people in Lebanon."
