ARGENTINA: Argentina Economy Minister and Central Bank Head Discuss IMF Deal

USD/CNH's Wednesday rebound ran out of steam at 7.2500 late in Asia Pac trade. We saw some volatility through the US CPI print, but sit near 7.2400 in early Thursday dealings. Yesterday's lows at 7.2157 saw a brief dip sub the simple 200-day MA (7.2220). CNH ended up losing a modest 0.20% for Wednesday's session. The DXY rose by a similar amount, but the BBDXY index was close to unchanged.

•  Spot USD/CNY finished at 7.2379 for Wednesday's session. The CNY CFETS basket tracker edged down slightly to 98.77 (per BBG), continuing its recent downtrend.
• Current USD/CNH spot levels rest near the 200-day EMA, while the 20 and 100-day EMA upside resistance points rest near 7.2600. We probably need to move back above this level to unwind some of the downside technical bias in the pair. Since the start of March USD/CNH rebounds have been progressively lower than prior episodes.
• Cross asset trends for CNH were a little less supportive through Wednesday trade. Onshore equities finished up down -0.36%, while in US trade the Golden Dragon index lost 1.21%. US equities also recovered modestly.
• US Tsy yields also finished firmer in the wash up of the mixed CPI report (softer headline but still some hawkish details). US-CH yield differentials have recovered some ground, although focus remains on onshore CGB yields. The 10yr is back around 1.85% but has been quite volatile this week (highs of 1.95% per BBG). Uncertainty around the PBoC easing outlook and likely greater debt supply impacting sentiment in this space.
• On the data front, we still await Feb new loans and aggregate finance figures. Feb FDI is also due between now and 18th March. 

RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer across meetings today. 

• Nevertheless, pricing still remains mixed compared to February’s pre-RBA Decision levels—meetings through July are flat to 4bps firmer, while those beyond are 4-14bps softer. February 26 meeting pricing is currently 6bps firmer than levels seen early on Tuesday.
• A 25bp rate cut in April is given a 6% probability, with a cumulative 63bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%). 

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-RBA Levels

Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.730/932 - High Sep 17 / 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.360 - High Dec 11  
• PRICE: 96.190 @ 14:10 GMT Mar 12
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures have pulled back from their most recent highs - a correction. A resumption of gains would signal scope for 96.360, the Dec 11 high. Clearance of this level would open 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, a stronger reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of the downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.