EU TECHNOLOGY: ASML Q4 Results
Looks positive across the board with net bookings coming in at 2x the consensus in Q4 along with strong FCF feeding through to expanded ST liquidity.
ASML A2[P]/A+
- Q4 net sales +28% YoY (+2.7% vs. BBG cons).
- Q4 net bookings EUR 7.1bn (2x cons) vs. EUR 9.2bn in Q423.
- Q4 op margin of 36.2% (vs. 34.1% cons).
- Q4 CFO of EUR 9.5bn from USD 3.2bn in Q423.
- Q4 FCF of EUR 8.8bn from EUR 2.6bn in Q423. FY dividend +4.9% YoY.
- Cash & ST investments of EUR 12.7bn from EUR 5bn at Q3 and EUR 7bn at Q423.
- Optimistic comments on AI driving long-term growth, higher revenue, and margins
- FY25 guidance in line with previous communication. Q125 midpoints ahead of consensus.
- 2pm London Time: https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-results/q4-2024
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6107.50 High Dec 26
- PRICE: 6008.25 @ 07:24 GMT Dec 30
- SUP 1: 5965.00/5866.00 Low Dec 23 / 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and Friday’s move lower highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A break of this level is required to expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
CROSS ASSET: Markets Pick Up Where They Left Off
Markets have generally picked up where they left off on Friday - although the US 10y yield has drifted off the closing high to trade back to 4.60%, a move that's likely keeping the USD pinned so far Monday, helping the likes of AUD/USD and NZD/USD to hold above the recent pullback lows.
- Equity futures remain lower across the board, with US index futures pointing to another lower open today to build on the softer Friday close. Meanwhile Bund futures are off the lowest levels, but remain perilously close to 132.71, the December low posted at the re-opening of trade after the weekend.
- Significant newsflow has been few and far between, with US domestic politics focusing on the internal Republican debate over H-1B visas and the passing of President Carter.
- Focus for the duration of Monday trade will be on the MNI Chicago PMI at 1445GMT, expected to tick up to 43.0 from 40.2 previously.
- We anticipate volumes and broader liquidity to remain very light over the coming two sessions, particularly with tomorrow's European market closures and early closes elsewhere. EUR futures are posting cumulative volumes ~30% below an already subdued average for this time of day.
BTP TECHS: (H5) Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat
- RES 4: 123.34 High Dec 11 and key resistance
- RES 3: 122.85 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 121.94 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 120.70/121.14 High Dec 20 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 119.85 @ Close Dec 27
- SUP 1: 119.41 Low Dec 27
- SUP 2: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 3: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low Nov 8
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and Friday’s sell-off highlights and extension of the current bear cycle. The contract has recently breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 118.80, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.14, the 20-day EMA.
