FED: Atlanta's Bostic: Might Be "Waiting For A While" For Rate Cuts
Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-2025 voter), who has leaned variously dovish and hawkish on the FOMC spectrum in the last couple of years, suggested in a Q&A Monday that the Fed may be "waiting for a while" before easing rates further. "I want to see what the 100 bps we did last year translates to in terms of the economy. Depending on what the data are, it might mean that we are waiting for a while."
- On rising policy uncertainty: "I had uncertainty on Dec. 31. The amount of uncertainty we have today is greater than that. I want to be cautious and I don't want to have our policy lean in a direction making an assumption our economy is going to evolve a certain way and then I have to turn and unwind. There are a lot of things I have to wait and see about before I feel confident I know which direction policy will go."
- He says that as of the end of 2024, the labor market was pretty solid, inflation was high but we had taken a lot of policy action to recalibrate it so that when it reached target we would be at a neutral rate. GDP maintained strength and firms were confident 2025 was going to be about the same as 2024.
- He notes "A lot of moving parts" from policy changes, economists expect tariffs would raise prices but deregulation unleash investment and productivity and put downward pressure on prices. He says that the most important thing we can do right now is ask our business contacts and families what they would do under various scenarios to understand their reaction function.
- On inflation: My outlook for inflation is to continue falling toward 2% in a bumpy, janky way. Housing is a major factor contributing to stubbornness. Alternate measures are pointing to disinflation but we have to stay on top of why the PCE measure isn't behaving like that.
- He reiterates that his neutral rate estimate is 3-3.5% area (nominal).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
