The earlier session high of 132.15 has capped upside in Bund futures, with the latest extension higher topping out at 132.09. Clearance of the 20-day EMA at 132.41 is still required to cancel a medium-term bearish threat, with the current corrective phase allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.
- The German curve has bull flattened, with 2-year yields 1.5bps lower and 30-year yields down 3bps.
- Today’s French and Lithuanian syndications have priced, removing any hedging related pressure in EGBs. The French transaction saw a record deal size (E10bln, at the top end of MNI’s expectations) and order books (in excess of E134bln). This should set the scene for smooth digestion at Thursday’s MT OAT/IL OAT auctions.
- ECB’s Nagel provided characteristically cautious comments in an interview with Bloomberg, but appeared to provide nascent support (or at least, no pushback) for a January cut.
- ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak from Davos at 1505GMT/1605GMT tomorrow. Villeroy, Knot, Makhlouf and Nagel are also set to speak. The data calendar is relatively limited, with focus on Friday’s January flash PMIs.
- On the supply front, tomorrow sees syndications from Finland and Spain, alongside a 15-year Bund auction and a Portuguese buyback.