AUDNZD: AUD/NZD Testing 1.1100

AUDUSD has been trading in a narrow range today falling to 0.6255 and then rising to 0.6277 driven by movements in the greenback as there has been little new information so far (USD index is slightly higher). It is currently down 0.15% to 0.6265 continuing its downtrend. 

• The 6-month annualised rate of the December Westpac lead index was slightly slower at 0.25% after 0.33%. This measure leads growth relative to trend by 3 to 9 months and it was positive throughout Q4 signalling some improvement in growth over H1 2025.
• AUDNZD is 0.2% higher at 1.1076 after Q4 NZ CPI printed broadly in line with expectations but showed a greater slowing in non-tradeables inflation. The data strengthened the view that the RBNZ will cut rates again by 50bp at its February 19 meeting.
• Aussie is relatively flat against other major currencies with AUDJPY around 97.55, AUDEUR 0.6018 and AUDGBP 0.5078.
• Equities are mixed with the ASX up 0.4% and S&P e-mini +0.2% but Hang Seng down 0.6% and CSI 300 -0.3%. Oil prices are range trading with WTI around $75.76/bbl. Copper is 0.4% lower and iron ore around $104/t.
• Later US December leading index prints and ECB President Lagarde and Bundesbank’s Nagel speak. 

China could offer interest or yield subsidies to speed up local authorities' acquisition of unsold homes for affordable housing and destocking, 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan Chase. The Ministry of Finance could support CNY1 trillion of housing acquisitions by releasing CNY20 billion of funds through subsidising interest rates or yields by about two percentage points, said Zhu. A yield of 3.5-4% would make acquisitions attractive, compared to China’s current rental yield of about 2%, Zhu added.

U.S. President Donald Trump will likely prioritise domestic affairs at the start of his second term despite a previous focus on China, wrote Xiao Yu, a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. However, China should be aware Trump could start a global tariff war should a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico be imposed, said Xiao. The Federal Reserve will likely continue gradually cutting interest rates as U.S. inflation will ease if Trump’s strategy to control energy prices by increasing crude oil output works, Xiao predicted. (Source: 21st Century Business Herald)