AUTOMOTIVE: Autoliv (ALV Baa1/BBB/BBB+): 1Q25 Results Out

EURIBOR FIX - EMMI/Bloomberg

• EUR001W 2.4210 -0.0030
• EUR001M 2.3860 0.0070
• EUR003M 2.4560 -0.0220
• EUR006M 2.4220 0.0070
• EUR012M 2.4390 -0.0120

• The French OAT futures is still leading the gains within EGBs, the 10yr Yield is testing the 3.50% level, although this is not seen as a Technical level.
• The Initial resistance in OATM5 is seen further out, up to 122.80.
• The early price action in futures has helped the OAT/Bund to tighten by 1.7bps, the spread is again testing the 67.00bps area, this was close to the 50% retracement of Macron's last June snap election call.
• A clear break through 67.00bps, opens to ~63bps next.

The bid in EGBs has provided spillover support for gilts.

• Futures as high as 92.12.
• The bearish technical theme in the contract is still intact, with initial resistance at the 20-day EMA (92.28) unchallenged thus far.
• Yields now little changed to 2bp lower, curve flatter.
• Both 2s10s and 5s30s have edged away from cycle highs after failing to close above their respective psychological resistance points (50bp & 100bp).
• 10s lag Bunds, spread ~3.5bp wider at 183bp, underscoring the Bund-led nature of the rally.
• Essentially no movement priced into BoE-dated OIS for this week, 18.5bp showing through May, ~23.5bp through June, ~37.5bp through August and 54bp through year-end.
• We still look for the next cut to come in May.
• SONIA futures effectively flat.
• Macro and cross-market cues are set to dominate early this week, with much of this week’s UK focus set to fall on the BoE decision and labour market data, both due Thursday.
• Note that we haven’t seen a single call for anything other than an unchanged Bank Rate on Thursday, which should leave focus on the vote split and accompanying communication.
• Expect greater detail in our gilt week ahead preview.