BONDS: Bank of America Don’t Expect BoJ Policy Tweaks To Meaningfully Impact Wider Global Bonds
Mar-18 13:08
Bank of America outline several reasons for limited global FI reaction to any BoJ tightening:
- The action is already well priced.
- Limited historical evidence of large spillovers.
- YCC currently not capping yields.
- Fed's easing bias.
- Light positioning.
- They go on to note that “the immediate impact of BoJ policy change on global rates is likely to be limited but one potential channel of future spillover will be Japanese bank long positioning in USTs. Higher JGB yields and a sell-off in USTs could lead banks to rebalance from USTs to JGBs. We see this as more of a risk for 2H24 than 2Q24 as the BoJ would need to see more data and may wait for clarity from the US election. Both fundamentals and our global yield framework show a scope for the 10yr JGB yield to rise toward 1% or above.”
- “We have seen a mixed reaction in the vol market to a potential BoJ policy shift. This may be driven less by conviction on that shift and more about expectations for a relatively slow process of policy tightening. The Japan rate vol grid may only slowly awaken.”
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US: Biden To Deliver Remarks In Ohio Shortly
Feb-16 21:46
President Biden is shortly due to deliver remarks from the site of a Feb 3, 2023 train derailment which caused a major environment disaster in East Palestine, Ohio. LIVESTREAM
- Biden's slow response to the crisis was widely seen as contributing to a boost in former President Donald Trump's approval when Trump visited the site three weeks after the incident to highlight the admininstration's response.
- Trump wrote this week: “Biden should have gone there a long time ago. For him to go now is an insult to those who live and work in East Palestine.”
- The New York Times notes: "Mr. Biden, who promised to visit soon after the disaster, has faced criticism from Republicans and some residents for not going sooner. In a sign of how politically fraught the situation has become, Trump supporters planned a rally to coincide with Mr. Biden’s visit."
AUDUSD TECHS: Firmer Close Despite Bearish Trend Signals
Feb-16 20:30
- RES 4: 0.6900 High Jun 16 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6729/71 High Jan 12 / 3
- RES 1: 0.6546/6625 20-day EMA / High Jan 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6532 @ 16:31 GMT Feb 16
- SUP 1: 0.6443 Low Feb 13
- SUP 2: 0.6412 76.4% Fibonacci retracement for Oct - Dec upleg
- SUP 3: 0.6360 Low Nov 14
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10
AUD/USD posted a firm weekly and daily close Friday, rebuffing the bearish trend condition. The Latest bounce is still considered corrective at these levels, with Tuesday’s initial break lower reinforcing the bearish theme. To the downside, sights rest on 0.6412, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a clear downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 0.6625, the Jan 30 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6546, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Tsys Weaker/Near Support After Strong PPI Print
Feb-16 20:24
- Treasury futures holding weaker after the bell - off lows after breaching technical support following this morning's higher than expected PPI.
- Headline final demand PPI printed at its highest SA monthly rate since August '23 in January, with the unrounded 0.33% M/M print easily overshooting the 0.1% M/M consensus (vs -0.15% prior after Wednesday's revisions).
- The core metrics overshot consensus by a larger margin. PPI ex-food and energy at 0.50% M/M (vs 0.1% cons, -0.06% prior) brings the 3mma annualized rate to 2.42% (vs 0.56% prior). Perhaps the one encouraging factor is the 6mma annualized rate, which still moderated a touch to 1.61% (vs 1.75% prior).
- Lower than expected: Housing Starts (1.331M, 1.460M est, prior up-revised to 1.562M from 1.460M) and Building Permits (1.470M vs. 1.512M est).
- Mar'24 10Y futures currently -14.5 at 109-23, after breaching initial technical support of 109-17 (50.0% of Oct 19 - Dec 27 climb) vs. 109-15 intraday low. Curves bear flatten: 2s10s -1.567 at -36.176, 10Y yield +.0669 at 4.2969%.
- Slow start to the week ahead, no data Monday for Presidents Day holiday (rates open for shortened hours on Globex). Tuesday: Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity and Leading Index (-0.1%, -0.3%). Treasury supply: $79B 13W, $70B 26W and $46B 52W bill auctions.
