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Global natural gas prices rose last week on forecasts for cold weather and an expected tight market for 2025. Europe rose 2.7% on Friday to EUR 55.98 after a high of EUR 56.10 to be up 5.2% on the week due to cold weather and falling inventories from robust heating demand. 

• European storage levels are under 51%, lowest for three years, according to Bloomberg, in comparison with 69% this time last year. UK, Germany and France are particularly likely to see a drop in temperatures in the coming week.
• Spring/summer refilling remains a concern with contract prices for those months above next winter’s resulting in no incentive to refill at that time, especially as some European countries have proposed intervening in the market. Significant uncertainty persists regarding access to global supplies.
• US natural gas fell 2.8% on Friday to $3.31 but 8.8% higher on the week. It has jumped in APAC trading so far today to $3.42. Friday’s drop was due to adequate inventories for the rest of the US winter, while weather in the central and eastern US is forecast to shift colder. Spring is approaching and so concern over heating demand is beginning to abate.
• US lower-48 gas production was up 1.2% y/y on Friday, while demand was 7.2% y/y higher, according to BNEF data.
• Increased demand from Europe has resulted in LNG shipments for Asia being redirected to Europe and pushing up Asian gas prices, according to ANZ. 

China’s CPI reached 0.5% y/y in January, the fastest rate in five months, driven by Spring Festival demand and authorities' new round of consumer trade-in scheme, according to Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank. The temperature drop affected agricultural production, causing pork prices and fresh fruit and vegetables to rebound, Wen added. Looking ahead, PPI declines may narrow as strong exports and resumption in construction following the Spring Festival supports a recovery of domestic industrial product prices, following January's 2.3% fall, Wen said.

China’s customs department is likely to support export firms this year through favourable tax policies and by expanding the scope of cross-border e-commerce retail sales, according to Song Siyuan, associate researcher at the Ministry of Commerce. Authorities may increase logistics and customs clearance services, improve logistics efficiency and reduce costs, Song added. China’s export sector can benefit from a complete industrial system and an increasing number of trading partners, Song continued.