EM ASIA CREDIT: Bank of Thailand to support property sector

• It is another very busy overnight session for Bund, decent traded volumes and already a 44 ticks range, looking where futures is, this will mean that the 10yr Yield will be quoted above 2.50% post Cash open.
• Weaker JGB 20yr Auction, Ukraine Defence spending talks, Tariffs risks, Hawkish Fed Waller "Latest Data supports rates on Hold" have helped keep the pressure on Core Govies.
• The small beat in the UK data had not impact in Bund, on the contrary it is finding a small base, cash flow led buying.
• Next immediate support in Bund is at 131.62, followed by 131.00.
• Resistance moves down to 132.59 20-day EMA.
• It is another light day on the Data front with the main focus on Friday's PMIs this week.
• Today sees, German ZEW and for North America, the Canadian CPI.
• SUPPLY: UK £1.75bn 2063 (Equates to 27.5k Gilt) should weigh, Germany €4.5bn Schatz (equates to 47.9k Schatz) will weigh, Finland 5s, 10s (won't impact Bund).
• SPEAKERS: ECB Holzmann, Cipolonne (at MNI), BoE Bailey, Fed Daly, Barr.

• Private regular AWE a touch lower than expected, whole economy regular AWE broadly in line, whole economy inc bonus marginally higher than exp.
• PAYE payrolls revised significantly (again). +20.7k in Jan and -13.9k in Dec (rather than -47k in Dec)
• LFS unemployment rate at 4.4% (rounded). BOE looked for 4.45%, consensus 4.5% (rounded).
• More to follow.

• RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9 ‘24 
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24               
• RES 2: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 0.6384 High Dec 13 
• PRICE: 0.6360 @ 07:03 GMT Feb 18 
• SUP 1: 0.6305/6231 50-day EMA / Low Feb 10 
• SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
• SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support

AUDUSD is trading at its recent highs and a bull theme remains intact. The pair has cleared 0.6331, the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. The breach highlights a stronger reversal and paves the way for gains towards 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position. This suggests the latest recovery is a correction. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6231, the Feb 10 low.